Strategic Assessment of Risk 2026-2027

Contents

Executive Summary. 5

Introduction. 7

Lancashire Combined Fire Authority. 8

About Lancashire. 8

Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service - community risk identification process. 9

National and local risks. 10

National Risk Register (NRR) 10

Lancashire Resilience Forum.. 14

PESTELO Analysis. 15

Historical Data. 17

Injuries and fatalities. 18

Risk assessment methodology. 19

Consequence score. 19

Executive risk assessment summary. 22

Wildfire. 23

Flooding. 24

Deliberate building fires. 25

Commercial property fires. 26

Road traffic collisions (RTC’s) 27

Rescue collapsed structure/confined space. 28

Industrial fires. 29

Accidental dwelling fires (ADF’s) 29

Hazardous materials incident (Minor) 30

Road vehicle fires. 31

Suicide or suicide attempts. 32

Assist other agencies. 32

Building under construction fires. 33

Other outdoor fires (Primary) 34

Rescue from height 34

High rise fires. 35

Waste disposal site fires. 36

Hazardous materials incident (Hazmat) 37

Hazardous materials incident (Major) 37

Other transport fires (air, boat, train) 37

Secondary fires (accidental) 38

Secondary fires (anti-social behaviour - ASB) 38

Rescue from water 39

Other transport or making safe (not fire) 40

Removal of people from objects and Removal of objects from people. 40

Removal of objects from people. 41

Removal of people from objects. 41

Animal rescue. 41

Heritage fires. 42

Effecting entry/exit 43

Lift release. 43

Malicious attacks/terrorist incidents. 44

Rescue from mud. 45

Rescue from depth. 46

Resource to risk. 46

District profiles. 48

Appendix A – Full PESTELO analysis. 49

Political 49

International conflict and global instability. 49

UK terrorism, public disorder and infrastructure attacks. 49

National security and whole-of-society resilience. 49

Economic. 49

Commercial and high street decline. 49

Deprivation. 50

Inflation / cost of living. 51

Fuel Poverty. 51

Socio-Cultural 51

Population Changes. 51

Households and Residential buildings. 52

Cultural Diversity. 54

Health and Wellbeing. 55

Fly-tipping and environmental disorder 58

Technological and Infrastructure. 59

Low Carbon Technologies and Energy Transition. 59

Digital dependency, data capability and critical system failure. 61

Cyber security and cyber resilience. 61

Data infrastructure and information resilience. 62

Technology-related infrastructure dependencies. 62

Infrastructure. 62

Built Environment 65

Environment 66

Climate change: wildfires. 66

Climate change: flooding. 66

Wider climate change impacts and concurrent weather events. 67

Water infrastructure, scarcity and operational water supply. 67

Waste, recycling and illegal disposal risks. 67

Hazardous building materials and ageing building stock. 68

Pandemic and emerging infectious disease as environmental/public health risk. 68

Environmental impact of emergency incidents. 68

Legislative. 68

Building Safety Reform.. 68

The Building Safety Act 2022. 69

The Fire Safety (England) Regulations 2022. 69

The Fire Safety Act 2021. 70

Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025 / Martyn’s Law.. 70

Safeguarding legal and governance responsibilities. 70

Organisational 70

Ageing estate and inclusive, sustainable facilities. 71

Construction and capital programme cost pressures. 71

Supply chain, procurement and tariff pressures. 71

Employment Rights Act 2025. 71

Staff availability, recruitment, retention, loss of key staff 71

Ageing workforce, health and wellbeing. 72

Workplace culture, conduct and public trust 72

Workforce pay, recruitment and retention pressures. 72

Specialist capabilities and national resilience skills. 72

Changing workforce expectations and employee mental health. 72

Strategic partnerships and collaboration. 73

Future mobilisation and shared service arrangements. 73

Serious Violence Duty. 73

Public inquiries, audit and inspection outcomes. 73

Worker Protection duty and harassment prevention. 73

Local government reform and devolution. 74

Artificial Intelligence. 74

Robotics / Autonomous Vehicles / Augmented reality / Drones. 74

RIPA, drones, body-worn video and surveillance governance. 75

Data governance, information sharing and UK GDPR changes. 75

Net zero transition and environmental sustainability obligations. 75

Fire contaminants and occupational exposure requirements. 75

Procurement Act 2023 compliance. 76

Public Office (Accountability) Bill / Hillsborough Law.. 76

Appendix B - Glossary of Abbreviations and Terms. 77

 

Executive Summary

Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service (LFRS) plays a vital role in keeping Lancashire’s communities safe. The Strategic Assessment of Risk (SAoR) provides the evidence base for identifying, understanding and assessing the risks facing our communities, as well as the organisational risks that could affect delivery of the Community Risk Management Plan (CRMP). Its findings inform supporting policies and strategies, operational preparedness, resource allocation, targeted prevention activity and the continued development of our services. By identifying current and emerging challenges, the SAoR helps ensure that our people, resources and capabilities remain equipped to protect communities, staff and the environment, respond to changing needs and expectations, and deliver our commitment to Making Lancashire Safer.

The document sets out the statutory responsibilities placed on LFRS and the governance arrangements through Lancashire Combined Fire Authority (CFA). It also provides an overview of Lancashire, including demographic trends, district profiles, deprivation, health, ethnicity, religion and population data. This context helps identify how risk varies across the county and how changing community needs may influence prevention, protection and response activity.

The assessment considers national and local risks, drawing on the National Risk Register and the Lancashire Resilience Forum Community Risk Register. These processes identify major hazards and threats, assess their likelihood and impact, and support multi-agency planning for emergencies that could affect safety, security, health, the economy, the environment and society. This ensures local planning reflects both national risk priorities and Lancashire’s specific risk profile.

The PESTELO analysis examines the factors that may affect the Service across political, economic, socio-cultural, technological and infrastructure, environmental, legislative and organisational themes. It highlights challenges such as deprivation, fuel poverty, an ageing population, climate change, emerging technologies, and legislative reform. Together, these factors help identify where risk may be increasing, including in communities or locations traditionally considered lower risk.

The assessment also reviews historical incident data and applies LFRS’s risk assessment methodology to understand the most common and highest-risk incident types attended by the Service. This methodology combines professional judgement with data-driven analysis, using incident frequency, consequence scoring and trend analysis to identify emerging, stable and declining areas of risk.

By bringing together community intelligence, external risk analysis, national and local resilience information, historical response data and professional expertise, the SAoR provides a clear evidence base for how LFRS understands, prioritises and responds to risk. It supports decisions about prevention, protection, response, partnership working and resource allocation, helping the Service continue to make Lancashire safer.

Introduction

The Fire and Rescue National Framework identifies a range of national challenges that fire and rescue services must consider, including terrorism, climate change, an ageing population and ongoing financial pressures. In pursuit of our purpose of Making Lancashire Safer, it is important that these wider challenges are understood and reflected in how LFRS plans, prioritises and delivers its strategic objectives.

To support this, LFRS undertakes a regular Strategic Assessment of Risk (SAoR). This assessment helps us understand the potential impact of external and internal factors on our communities, our statutory responsibilities and our ability to deliver effective prevention, protection and response services. Where risks are identified, we consider whether they should be mitigated, monitored or accepted, ensuring that our approach to risk supports our vision and does not compromise our strategic objectives.

The assessment is reviewed at least annually as part of our corporate planning process. It brings together current and historical risk data, local intelligence, national and local resilience information, and professional judgement to inform our plans and strategies. It also supports our statutory Community Risk Management Plan (CRMP) by providing evidence on the fire and rescue-related risks facing Lancashire and how we target resources efficiently and effectively to manage them.

Lancashire is currently made up of 14 district areas (including the 2 Unitary Authority areas of Blackpool, and Blackburn with Darwen), each with its own risk profile. District plans are informed by local intelligence and supported by annual district intelligence profiles, which highlight incident trends, geographical risk, people risk, vulnerable groups and priority locations. This helps ensure that local prevention, protection and response activity is evidence-based and targeted where it can have the greatest impact.

The environment in which we operate continues to change, and new risks will emerge over time. Alongside the annual Strategic Assessment of Risk, we continue to monitor emerging opportunities and threats throughout the year through our established risk management processes. This ensures that LFRS remains responsive to changing risk and continues to focus its resources on keeping Lancashire’s communities safe.

 

Lancashire Combined Fire Authority

The Combined Fire Authority (CFA) is responsible for leading and supporting Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service. The CFA has a membership of 25 elected councillors consisting of 19 from Lancashire County Council, 3 from Blackburn with Darwen Council and 3 from Blackpool Council. Under the Fire and Rescue Services Act 2004 the CFA is legally required to enforce fire safety legislation and to reduce the risk of fire causing death, severe injury and property related losses to the community. It must also make provision for rescuing people in the event of road traffic collisions and for protecting people from serious harm arising from road traffic collisions in the Lancashire area.

The CFA is legally responsible for the enforcement of fire safety legislation including:

·         The Regulatory Reform (Fire Safety) Order 2005 (applicable in England and Wales) places duties on the "responsible person" to undertake suitable and sufficient fire risk assessments and implement appropriate fire safety measures to identify, manage and reduce the risk of fire in relevant premises, including the common parts of multi-occupied residential buildings.

·         The Fire Safety (Residential Evacuation Plans) (England) Regulations 2025 require responsible persons in specified high-rise and higher-risk residential buildings in England to make reasonable endeavours to identify residents who may have difficulty evacuating in the event of a fire, undertake person-centred fire risk assessments where appropriate, implement suitable mitigation measures, and maintain building emergency evacuation plans. The Regulations were made in July 2025 and came into force on 6 April 2026.

·         The Fire Safety Act 2021 clarified that the Regulatory Reform (Fire Safety) Order 2005 applies to the structure, external walls (including cladding, balconies, windows and doors attached to those walls) and flat entrance doors of multi-occupied residential buildings. This removed ambiguity regarding the scope of fire risk assessments and the responsibilities of the responsible person.

·         The Building Safety Act 2022 introduced a new regulatory framework for higher-risk buildings, placing greater emphasis on accountability, resident safety, the "golden thread" of building information, duty holder responsibilities and the management of building safety risks throughout a building's lifecycle

The CFA governs Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service, which is a designated Category 1 responder under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004. This Act requires emergency responders in England and Wales to co-operate in maintaining a public community risk register which is a product of the Lancashire Resilience Forum (LRF). The Lancashire Resilience Forum gives responders the opportunity to consult, collaborate and share information with each other to facilitate planning and response to emergencies.

About Lancashire

Lancashire covers 3,076 sq. km and had a usual resident population of 1,531,200 in the 2021 Census. This was an increase of 70,300 people, or 4.8%, since 2011. The size, population and mix of urban, coastal and rural communities create varied risks across the county.

Our service area is organised into six areas: Central, Eastern, Northern, Pennine, Southern and Western. Each has distinct local risks that influence prevention, protection and response activity.

Lancashire’s built environment includes stone-built dwellings and mills, timber-frame apartments and listed heritage buildings. This range of building types presents varied and changing fire and rescue risks.

Lancashire has extensive transport infrastructure, including five motorways, 5091.7km of road, key railway lines, shipping ports and airports. These networks support travel, work and tourism, but also create risks linked to transport incidents, infrastructure disruption and cross-border movement.

Lancashire’s countryside, canals, 123-km coastline and towns attract 68.6 million visitors each year, up from 66.7 million in 2023. This includes 7.5 million staying visits and 23.8 million nights in local accommodation, adding seasonal and location-specific demand for prevention, protection and response services.

Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service - community risk identification process

Figure 1: A flow chart that describes how everything including the National Risk Register, Community Risk Register, PESTELO analysis and incident data and feeds into Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service's SAoR and how this informs the CRMP and other key management and planning arrangements.

National and local risks

National Risk Register (NRR)

The National Risk Register 2026 is the external version of the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA), which is the government’s assessment of the most serious risks facing the UK.

The 2026 NRR updates the risk landscape, common consequences, impacts on vulnerable people, response roles and scoring. The 2026 edition of the NRR also includes a number of new risks. These include:

·         A new risk for digital resilience failure – based on lessons from the global IT outage in July 2024

·         A ‘cyber attack water infrastructure’ risk – to reflect learning from reported cyber attacks targeting the water sector

·         Two new risks focused on data infrastructure (one focused on a cyber attack and the other on disruption)

·         One risk has been added focused on interference in democratic processes

·         Two risks focused on operational and system-wide pressures - ‘significant disruption to the criminal justice system’ and ‘accidental damage to the national gas transmission network’

The disruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe risk has been removed as reliance on Russian gas imports has significantly reduced.

The NRR assesses the likelihood and impact for each risk, following a rigorous and well-tested methodology.

The NRR helps LFRS consider how natural hazards, accidents and malicious threats could affect lives, health, society, critical infrastructure, the economy and national security, and informs the capabilities needed to prepare for, respond to and recover from such emergencies.

The NRR includes information about 89 risks, within 9 risk themes. The risks are thematically grouped to bring together risks that share similar risk exposure and require similar capabilities to prepare mitigate and respond – although several risks could be categorised under more than one theme. These are:

·         Terrorism

·         Cyber

·         State Threats

·         Geographic and diplomatic

·         Accidents and systems failures

·         Natural and environmental hazards

·         Human, animal and plant health

·         Societal

·         Conflict and instability

National Risk Register Assessment Matrix

Impact	Catastrophic 5		7, 27, 28		-		25a		38, 56		-
	Significant 4		21		23, 37, 58a		9, 10, 26,  51, 53a, 53b, 53c, 65		22, 41, 42, 49, 52, 57, 64		3
	Moderate 3		17, 19, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35,  58c		54		4, 12, 24, 25b, 30a,, 43, 46, 47, 55, 58b, 58d		11, 39, 45, 50, 59b, 60, 62		30b, 48
	Limited 2		18, 29, 36		5, 16, 40, 44		20, 61, 63		2, 8, 13, 14		6, 59a
	Minor 1		44		39		-		1, 15
-		1 <0.2%		2 0.2-1%		3 1-5%		4 5-25%		5 >25%
		Likelihood

Figure 2: A table which outlines the thematic risks listed in the table below against impact and likelihood.

 

 

Number	Thematic group of risk
-	Terrorism
1	International terrorist attack
2	Northern Ireland related terrorism
3*	Terrorist attacks in publicly accessible locations
4*	Terrorist attacks on transport
5	Strategic hostage taking
6	Assassination of a high-profile figure
7*	Larger-scale Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear attacks
8*	Smaller-scale Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear attacks
9*	Medium-scale - Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear attacks
10*	Conventional attacks on infrastructure
11*	Cyber attacks on infrastructure
-	Geographic and diplomatic
12	Disruption to global oil trade routes
-	Accidents and systems failures
13	Major adult social care provider failure
14*	Insolvency of supplier of critical services to public service
15	Insolvency affecting fuel supply
16*	Rail accident
17	Large passenger vessel accident
18	Major maritime pollution incident
19	Vessel blocking major port
20*	Accident involving high consequence dangerous goods
21*	Aviation collision
22	Disruption of space-based activities
23	Loss of positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services
24*	Simultaneous loss of all fixed and mobile forms of communication
25a*	National power outage
25b*	Regional failure of the electricity network
26*	National gas and electricity shortfall
27*	Civil nuclear accident
28	Radiation release from overseas nuclear site
29	Radiation exposure from transported, stolen or lost goods
30a	Technological failure at a systemically important retail bank
30b	Technological failure at a UK critical financial market infrastructure
31*	Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore major hazard (Control of Major Accident Hazards - COMAH) site
32	Accidental large toxic chemical release from an onshore major hazard (Control of Major Accident Hazards - COMAH) site
33	Accidental fire or explosion on an offshore oil or gas installation
34*	Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore fuel pipeline
35*	Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore major accident hazard pipeline
36	Accidental work-related (laboratory) release of a hazardous pathogen
37*	Reservoir/dam collapse
38*	Water infrastructure failure or loss of drinking water
39	Food supply contamination
40*	Major fire
41*	National disruption to data infrastructure
42*	Digital resilience failure
43*	Accidental damage on the National Gas Transmission Network
-	Natural and environmental hazards
44*	Wildfire
45	Volcanic eruption
46*	Earthquake
47*	Humanitarian crisis overseas – natural hazard event
48*	Disaster response in the Overseas Territories
49*	Severe space weather
50*	Storms
51*	High temperatures and heatwaves
52*	Low temperatures and snow
53a*	Coastal flooding
53b*	Fluvial flooding
53c*	Surface water flooding
54*	Drought
55*	Poor air quality
-	Human, animal and plant health
56*	Pandemic
57*	Outbreak of an emerging infectious disease
58a	Animal disease – major outbreak of foot and mouth disease
58b	Animal disease – major outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza
58c	Animal disease – major outbreak of African horse sickness
58d	Animal disease – major outbreak of African swine fever
59a	Major outbreak of plant pest – Xylella fastidiosa
59b	Major outbreak of plant pest – Agrilus planipennis
-	Societal
60*	Public disorder
61*	Industrial action
62	Reception and integration of British Nationals arriving from overseas
63	Significant disruption to the operation of the Criminal Justice System
-	Conflict and instability
64	Deliberate disruption of UK space systems and space-based services
65	Nuclear miscalculation not involving the UK

* The most pertinent risks identified by the National Risk Register for Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service.

A full breakdown can be found on the UK government website

Lancashire Resilience Forum

The Lancashire Resilience Forum uses its Community Risk Register, informed by the National Risk Register, to identify and assess risks that could lead to local emergencies, including natural events such as severe weather and disease, accidents, and deliberate acts such as terrorism; this supports local planning, preparedness and the identification of new or changing risks.

The highest risks identified can be seen below:

	Likelihood	Impact	Level of Risk
Influenza-type pandemic	4	5	Very high
Emerging infectious diseases	4	4	Very high
Industrial Action (fuel)	4	4	Very high
Surface water flooding/localised flash flooding	4	4	Very high
Failure of the national electricity transmission system	3	5	Very high
Coastal flooding/ Fluvial flooding	3	4	Very high
Gas supply failure	3	4	Very high
Rail networks incidents	5	3	High
Systematic financial crisis	5	3	High
Volcanic eruption	4	3	High
Influx of British Nationals	4	3	High
Severe space weather (e.g. geomagnetic storm)	4	3	High
Disruption or loss of telecommunications	3	3	High
Poor air quality	3	3	High
Low temperatures and heavy snow	3	3	High
Heatwave	3	3	High
Technological failure at a retail bank	3	3	High
Loss of Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) services	2	4	High
Reservoir/dam collapse	2	4	High
Major outbreak of animal disease	2	4	High
Drought	2	4	High
Radiation release from overseas nuclear accident	1	5	High

Further information can be found on the Lancashire Resilience Forum website.

To ensure that Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service are prepared for any national or local events we work in partnership with the Lancashire Resilience Forum to train and exercise for foreseeable events and have robust business continuity planning to ensure we can still fulfil our statutory duties.

Sections 13 and 16 of the Fire and Rescue Services Act 2004 govern mutual assistance and contractual arrangements between fire and rescue authorities in the UK.  Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service has ‘memorandum of understanding’ arrangements in place with regional and neighbouring fire and rescue services in terms of reinforcement schemes to ensure serious emergencies are attended in an efficient and effective manner.  This also includes specialist functions such as rope rescue.

PESTELO Analysis

The SAoR employs the PESTELO analysis model, examining Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological and infrastructure, Environmental, Legislative, and Organisational drivers that will influence and shape service delivery. By analysing these factors, we can gain insight into the external influences which may impact LFRS. Full PESTELO analysis can be found in Appendix A.

Key areas of focus are as follows.

Political

International conflict, terrorism, public disorder and attacks on critical infrastructure continue to create uncertainty and may affect energy costs, supply chains, procurement, business continuity and national resilience requirements. Changes in government policy, public-sector reform, devolution and local government reorganisation may also affect LFRS governance, funding, accountability and partnership arrangements.

Economic

Inflation, cost-of-living pressures, construction costs, workforce pay and global supply-chain disruption may increase operating and capital costs and affect the availability of vehicles, equipment and specialist goods. Deprivation, fuel poverty, business failure and declining town centres may increase vulnerability, unsafe housing, homelessness, vacant premises, deliberate fires and demand for targeted prevention activity.

Socio-Cultural

Lancashire’s growing, ageing and increasingly diverse population will influence future demand for prevention, protection and response services. Key risks include increasing numbers of older people and single-person households, health inequalities, poor housing, social isolation, mental ill health, hoarding, substance misuse and homelessness. LFRS will need accessible and culturally appropriate engagement, strong safeguarding arrangements and targeted Safe and Well activity informed by local risk and vulnerability.

Technological and Infrastructure

Greater reliance on digital systems, data, cloud services and connected technology increases exposure to cyberattack, system failure and loss of critical information. Artificial intelligence, drones, robotics and immersive technologies offer opportunities to improve analysis, training and firefighter safety but require effective governance, assurance and data protection. Electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, battery storage, hydrogen and renewable energy infrastructure are creating new and complex operational risks. Lancashire’s extensive transport, water, energy and built infrastructure also requires robust site-specific planning, specialist capability and multi-agency preparedness.

Environmental

Climate change is increasing the likelihood and severity of wildfires, flooding, heat, drought, storms and concurrent emergencies, placing additional pressure on communities, infrastructure and operational resources. Water scarcity, waste and recycling fires, hazardous building materials, pollution and emerging infectious diseases also require continued planning. LFRS must strengthen operational resilience while progressing its own net-zero and environmental sustainability commitments.

Legislative

Building and fire safety reforms continue to increase regulatory expectations and the complexity of protection activity. LFRS must also respond to requirements associated with Martyn’s Law, data protection, procurement, employment rights, worker protection, surveillance technologies, firefighter contaminants and safeguarding. The Serious Violence Duty requires partnership working, information sharing, local needs assessment and coordinated preventative action, with implications for analytical, prevention and safeguarding resources.

Organisational

Medium-term financial pressures may constrain the delivery of CRMP priorities and investment in people, technology, specialist capability and the estate. Recruitment, retention, workforce ageing, wellbeing, changing employee expectations and the loss of specialist skills remain significant risks. Organisational culture, conduct, public trust, inspection outcomes and partnership effectiveness will continue to influence reputation and performance. LFRS will need strong governance, succession planning, business continuity, sustainable estate management and effective collaboration to maintain resilient services.

Historical Data

The National Incident Recording System was introduced by the Department for Communities and Local Government in 2009, with the requirement that all fire and rescue services record operational data using a standardised data collection mechanism.  This has allowed unprecedented insight and analysis to be carried out at a national level, as well as presenting fire and rescue service fire and rescue services with the ability to greatly enhance data-led decision making.

During the seventeen years in which the incident recording system has been in operation, incident levels within Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service have reduced by 11%, which equates to approximately 2,213 fewer incidents.  This reduction in activity is evident across most incident types, with false alarms reducing by 20%, secondary fires by 29% and primary fires, which are the most significant type of fire, have reduced by 41% within the same timeframe.  However, special service incidents have doubled, mainly due to the adoption of undertaking gaining entry incidents on behalf of the ambulance service.

Figure 3: Chart showing incident types attended in Lancashire since 2016/17

Injuries and fatalities

The introduction of the incident recording system has allowed fire and rescue services to record additional granularity and data on victims at operational incidents. Within the last seventeen years, injuries at fires have increased by 25%, with the number of people receiving first aid and precautionary checks increasing by 37%.  Last year, there were 552 injuries resulting from fire, with 20% requiring a hospital visit.  Unfortunately, last year saw eleven fatalities in fires.

A large rise in the recording of victims from special service incidents has been witnessed over the previous seventeen years.  Recordings of injuries have risen by 181%, with fatalities rising by 167%.  In the past many of these have occurred in RTCs, now increases are as a result of providing support or assistance to other agencies, mainly in affecting entry to domestic premises on behalf of North West Ambulance Service.

The additional granularity and data recorded on victims as a result of the introduction of incident recording system has enabled greater analysis and insight to be obtained.  This has led to the introduction of more tailored and targeted campaigns and initiatives through data-led decision making.  Of all the accidental dwelling fires, 49% started in the kitchen last year.  Of these incidents, the most common correlation was the negligent use of a cooking appliance.  Due to this, home fire safety checks and safe and well visits place an added emphasis on kitchen or cooking safety.

Figure 4: Chart showing fatalities and injuries at incidents attended by the Fire Service over the last ten years.

Risk assessment methodology

The below assessment of risk was applied to 32 different incident types which cover the main incident types that we respond to as a Fire and Rescue Service and covered by National Operational Guidance.  The purpose of the methodology is to develop and utilise a reliable model that can be applied equally across all incident types whilst considering the likelihood, consequence, and emerging and declining risk.  The model uses single source reliable data (Incident Recording System), coupled with sector competent professional judgement.

Likelihood (risk)

Our likelihood calculation is based upon incidents historically attended over the previous three calendar years and the categorisation can be seen below:

Table 1: Likelihood score calculation.

Likelihood class	Likelihood Score	Frequency	Frequency definition
High	5	365 or more	At least once per day
Medium high	4	52-364	At least once a week but less than once a day
Medium	3	12-51	At least once a month but less than once a week
Medium low	2	1-11	At least once a year but less than once a month
Low	1	Less than 1	Less than once a year

After the frequency has been calculated a directional multiplier is applied as to whether the incident type is emerging or declining and an overall likelihood – direction score is generated.

Consequence score

The consequence score is derived as the average score from our seven consequence categories. These scores have had professional judgement applied from sector competent persons and each category individually scored from1-5.

Table 2: Consequence categories

Category	Definition
Loss of life	this reflects the loss of life consequences of an event occurring.
Injury	this reflects the potential casualties of an event.
Economic	this reflects the economic impact of an event.
Environmental	the reflects the environmental damage caused by an event.
Societal	this reflects the impact on societal function caused by an event.
Political	this reflects the impact of an event on the image of the service.
Personnel	this reflects the impact of an event on staff within the service.

The total risk score is then calculated as can be seen below:

Figure 5: Mapping diagram of the risk assessment methodology detailing the factors that contribute to calculating an overall risk score for a given incident type. Some of the factors include: the incident type; the consequence of the incident occurring; a likelihood rating; all of which lead to a total risk score for each incident type.

To support our findings and to deliver our services effectively we also utilise many other data sources and tools:

·         National Risk Register – The National Risk Register is an assessment of the key risks that have the potential to cause disruption in the UK.

·         Census - The census in the UK is a count of all people and households. The latest census in the UK was held on 21 March 2021. Top level results are now available.

·         Mosaic - Geodemographic segmentation data from Experian that classifies UK households into different geodemographic groups.

·         Incident Recording System - The incident recording system is an electronic system for recording data at incidents. The system is operated by the Home Office and all fire services have a requirement to gather incident data.

·         Partner agencies - Consultation and working practices are shared between partner agencies that are linked in some way to our local risks.

·         Cadcorp SIS and Web Map Layers - Cadcorp SIS is a desktop geographic information system used for spatial data analysis. Cadcorp Web Map Layers is a web-based geographic information system used to display spatial data.

·         Power BI is used to interrogate and present data extracted from the Service’s data warehouse.

·         Community Fire Risk Management Information System is an electronic information system used to store and manage business fire safety and community safety data.

·         Local Resilience Forum Community Risk Register provides information on emergencies that could occur and provides an assessment of how likely they are to happen and the impacts if they do.

·         Lancashire Insight - Lancashire specific data portal providing key statistical data regarding demographics, populous and health data.

·         District Intelligence Profiles and Plans - These identify risks that are perceived at a local level and help drive prevention, protection and response arrangements in localities.

·         Site Specific/ Operational Risk Information - This relates to information we gain during visits to high-risk premises, and which is then made available to crews when dealing with incidents.

·         Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) - 2025 - the official measure of relative deprivation for small areas in England. The IMD combines the seven individual domains to produce an overall relative measure of deprivation.

Due to the extensive and detailed documentation that underpins the Strategic Assessment of Risk not all information has been placed within this document. Should more detailed information be required it can be made available upon request through Planning, Performance and Assurance (internal) or via our website.

Executive risk assessment summary

Based on our risk assessment methodology, all incident categories have been scored. The highest risk incident types can be seen below. The highest risk incident types have been recorded within the Community Risk Management Plan (2022-2027) which highlights our proactive and reactive measure in response to the risk.

 

 

Items within the risk assessment have been linked in the Community Risk Management Plan outcomes due to similarities in response *1 have been merged, *2 have been merged, and *3 have been merged.

Overall risk rating percentiles

 

 

Wildfire

The wildfire season, severity and size of wildfires is increasing in duration, this could be attributed to climate change and other factors that have sustained or increased the fuel layer on the moors such as changes in land management, reduced animal grazing and competing priorities for moorland management.

Wildfires have historically occurred in spring and summer months.  The spring fires usually involve surface fine fuel fires such as Molina grass or heather that have been dried out by the wind, sun, and frost. The fires that occur are also supported by a blanket of dead vegetation on the moors from the previous year. These types of fires can spread rapidly over large geographic areas.

The summer fires are caused by prolonged periods of drought conditions due to low rainfall and high temperatures. Ground fuel fires that occur in large and remote geographic areas where water sources are not readily available can be extremely resource intensive, require support from partner agencies and be difficult to extinguish due to being deep seated below ground. These types of incidents require vast quantities of water far in excess what conventional fire-fighting appliances can deliver.

We know that wildfires can start for many reasons, such as mishandled campfires or barbecues, malicious activity such as deliberate fire setting, infrastructure incidents such as sparks from electricity lines or rail transport, and natural phenomena such as lightning (although this is rare). Hot, dry and windy weather are ideal conditions for wildfires to start and spread.

Over the previous five years, we attended 678 wildfire incidents which is an average of 136incidents a year. 82% of the incidents only involved 1 pump. 43% of all the wildfire incidents were deliberate, including some large-scale, multi-pump incidents attended by Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service.

 

Flooding

Whilst Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service has no statutory duty to provide emergency response to water or flooding events, as a category 1 responder the Service is bound by the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 to have plans in place to respond to all emergencies.  Through close consultation and collaboration with our partners and the Lancashire Resilience Forum, a Multi-Agency Flood Plan has been developed which outlines the agreed coordinated multi agency response should a flooding event occur in the Lancashire area. This plan has been identified as an essential requirement as it has been recognised through the Lancashire Resilience Forum Community Risk Register that there are approximately 65,000 properties at high or very high risk from flooding within Lancashire.  The average cost of flooding to a home is around £35,000 and to a business £82,000. The effects on mental health can last for months and even years. Environmental impacts include pollution, harm to livestock and wildlife, and destruction of habitats. Disruption to power supplies and transport networks is a risk and in the most severe cases, floods can cause injury and death.

Due to the diverse nature of the Lancashire landscape, our communities can be at risk from coastal or tidal flooding, river flooding (fluvial), surface water (pluvial) and reservoir flooding, albeit the likelihood of these events occurring varies from 1 in 5 years to 1 in 1000 years.

In the last five years, Lancashire Fire and Rescue service has responded to 122flooding related incidents relating to high tides, rising river levels or surface water. This equates to 24 incidents of this type a year. Domestic dwellings were affected at 61% of these incidents. West Lancashire has been the most affected (15% of the incidents), mainly due to the surface water.

 

Deliberate building fires

Inevitably, when thinking of deliberate fires, the term arson is often used. This is the act of using fire to destroy or damage any property belonging to another. However, there are many different reasons why individuals or groups display fire-setting behaviour, from curiosity to anti-social behaviour, to mental health issues. The term ‘deliberate fire setting’ covers a wider proportion of scenarios.

Regardless of the reason, a deliberate fire can cause significant damage to property, communities, the economy and in the worst-case scenarios cause injury or death. Using our incident recording system and Geographical Information Systems. Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service can scan for trends in anti–social and deliberate fire setting. By doing this, areas can be quickly identified through emerging trends, meaning prevention activities can be planned and undertaken, often with our partners. Activities can include anything from removal of rubbish to increased youth engagement activities, all with an aim to reduce the incidence of deliberate fires and help our partners build stronger more sustainable communities.

Over the previous five years, we have attended an average of 217deliberate building fires a year. Non-residential buildings accounted for 56% of the fires with public admin, security and safety properties being targeted the most (37% of the non-residential fires). Deliberate dwelling fires accounted for 38% of the total incidents with houses of single occupancy taking a 52% share of these incidents.

Deliberate building fires have been responsible for9 fatalities, 9 serious injuries and 30 minor injuries over the last five years.

 

Commercial property fires

Commercial property accounts for roughly 13% of the value of all buildings across the UK and is worth almost £900bn, according to the British Property Federation. Commercial property comprises a diverse range of property types including office space and retail establishments, from high street shops to large out-of-town complexes. It also refers to leisure establishments, such as restaurants, pubs, hotels, and gyms, and even car parking.

As with most counties throughout England, Lancashire boasts thousands of commercial premises, all of which must comply with the Regulatory Reform (Fire Safety) Order 2005.  Fire and rescue services are responsible for enforcing this legislation and Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service has a robust inspection programme in place for those premises deemed to be high risk. Fire inspection forms the basis of our protection programme designed to reduce the risk and impact of fire upon communities, businesses, and our environment, and safeguard firefighters who respond to incidents involving them.

Over the past five years, we have attended an average of 246 incidents a year which have involved commercial premises where the cause has been recorded as accidental or unknown. This equates to a five-year total of 1,230 incidents.

Non-residential properties accounted for 84% of the incidents, of which food and drink establishments accounted for 18%, with retail outlets with 16%, and industrial manufacturing 13%.

Other residential properties accounted for the other 16% of the total number of incidents, of which residential homes accounted for 35%, hotel/motel 29%, and student hall of residence 17%.

Fires at commercial property types resulted in 2 fatalities, 8 serious injuries and 21 minor injuries over the previous five years.

 

Road traffic collisions (RTC’s)

Nationally, road traffic collisions are the most frequently attended non-fire incident by Fire and Rescue Services. Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service has a statutory duty to provide an emergency response to road traffic collisions. Whilst we are not the lead agency for road safety prevention work (this falls to Lancashire County Council and Unitary Authorities), we do recognise the importance of road safety prevention work in mitigating collisions and the devastating effects that road traffic collisions can have on individuals and communities.  We are part of the Lancashire Road Safety Partnership.

The area covered by Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service is large and includes 5 motorways, over 700 km’s of 'A' roads and a significantly high number of rural roads.  Statistics have shown that car occupants are the most likely to be killed in a road traffic collision, followed by pedestrians, motorcyclists and cyclists. Children aged under 15 are most likely to be involved in road traffic collisions as pedestrians.

Over the previous five years, Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service have attended an average of 667 incidents of this type a year, which accounts for 14% of all Special Service calls. There has been 65 fatalities and 438 serious injuries from road traffic collisions attended by Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service over the last five years, the majority of which, involved either the extrication of trapped individuals or making the vehicle(s) safe.  Other types of work undertaken by operational crews at road traffic collisions have included making the scene safe, offering medical assistance only and the release of individuals where there was no requirement for an extrication to take place.

 

Rescue collapsed structure/confined space

Incidents occurring in confined spaces and within/around collapsed or unstable structures are some of the most complex areas that fire and rescue services work in and include both geological and manmade structures.

Fire and rescue services frequently attend incidents that involve a combination of these contexts, where danger to operational crews and the public is significant. Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service aims to promote and develop good practice and support the development of safe systems of work to minimise the dangers faced in these environments.

Over the previous five years, we have attended an average of 93incidents a year of this type, attending 464incidents in total. Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service attended 63 incidents involving somebody trapped in or under machinery or another object such as, hopper, conveyor, crusher. Eleven incidents from a collapsed structure, and 9 incidents involved a rescue from a confined space. Due to the nature of this incident type, there have been 8 fatalities, 34 serious injuries and 51 minor injuries.

 

Industrial fires

Industrial incidents can take a wide variety of forms, and their potential impact on our communities varies considerably in both scale and nature. In some cases, these incidents will have very limited impacts beyond the immediate area and can be dealt with locally, although others can have cascading effects that may impact the wider community. Within our Service area, there are 8 Top tier Control of Major Accident Hazard sites (Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations 1999) and several lower tier sites covered by the Dangerous Substances (Notification and Marking of Sites) Regulations 1990. These businesses are required to take all necessary measures to prevent major accidents involving dangerous substances to limit the consequences to people and the environment of any major accidents that do occur.

There are several industrial estates in our area that pose risks because of the diverse range of manufacturing and/or processes undertaken by the businesses that occupy the premises at these sites. The experienced level of demand remains relatively low at these premises due to many sites being well-protected from the risk of fire and other incidents. The significant level of prevention activity that we undertake as a fire and rescue service helps to ensure this level of protection remains high.

Over the previous five years, we attended an average of 40 industrial based incidents a year. Of the 197 incidents attended, manufacturing accounted for 74% and processing 26%, with fires within engineering premises and factories accounting for 45% of the overall total.

 

Accidental dwelling fires (ADF’s)

Dwelling fires are those occurring in buildings that are normally occupied, typically houses, flats and bungalows. Fires of this nature can also result in both physical and mental harm and the injuries sustained could be fatal. As well as the human cost associated with dwelling fires, there is a significant economic burden associated with property damage.  Lancashire Fire and Rescue service continues to provide a community fire safety service to the residents of Lancashire, where smoke alarms can be fitted, and home fire safety advice tailored to individual households as part of a Safe and Well visit. Reduction activity is carried out by community fire safety staff alongside operational personnel in conjunction with local and national campaigns.

Over the previous five years, we have attended an average of 751 incidents a year of this type. Single occupancy houses accounted for 63% of all accidental dwelling fires. Followed by purpose built flat/maisonette with 13% and self-contained sheltered housing 8%.

Blackpool district experienced the highest number of accidental dwelling fires, followed by Preston, Lancaster, and Blackburn with Darwen. Ribble Valley has seen the lowest number of accidental dwelling fires over the last five years. 33% of the total number of accidental dwelling fires were caused by 18-64 year olds with 20% caused by the elderly (65+). The largest causes of accidental dwelling fires are cooking appliance related, followed by spread form secondary fire, and smoking related. .

 

Hazardous materials incident (Minor)

Lancashire Fire and Rescue Servicehave categorised a hazardous materials incident to be minor if less than four pumping appliances attended. Over the previous five years, we have attended an average of 101 incidents of this type a year. Of the 507 incidents attended, twelve resulted in fatalities and there were 14 serious injuries sustained. 70% of the incidents occurred in a domestic dwelling environment, whilst others included non-residential environments, outdoors, and road vehicles. 65% of the incidents involved a gas release.

 

Road vehicle fires

The road vehicle fires dataset covers primary fires attended by Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service that involved any vehicle designed for road use. Fires in derelict road vehicles are only included if they are considered to be a primary fire (such as, the fire involved a fatality, casualty or rescue, or the fire was attended by five or more pumping appliances).

Every year in the UK, thousands of road vehicles are involved in fire and unfortunately people die as a result. Around half of these fires are started deliberately to cover criminal activity, to make a fraudulent insurance claim or as an act of vandalism. One in 12 reported stolen vehicles will be burnt out. Many other vehicle fires break out because of a fault or simply due to a lack of basic maintenance. The financial loss of having a car fire is bad enough and although insurance may compensate for this, nothing can help with the shock and inconvenience that follow even a small fire.

Over the previous five years we have attended an average of 478 incidents a year involving road vehicle fires. This equates to 2,388 in total, with 59% involving cars, 11% vans and 11% motorcycles, with 36% of the fires being deliberate. 

The district of Preston experienced the most road vehicle fires, and 39% were deliberate.  There were casualties from this incident type with 5 fatalities, 10 people sustaining serious injuries over the last five years, and 15 people with minor injuries.

 

 

Suicide or suicide attempts

Across England, fire and rescue services responded to a record number of suicides or suicide attempts – the tenth successive yearly increase nationwide. Suicide and suicide attempts can have lasting effects on individuals, their social networks and communities and the emergency responders attending.

Over the previous five years, we have attended 292 suicides or suicide attempts. This is an average of 58 incidents of this type a year. The districts of Preston (15%) and Blackpool (14%) had the highest number of incidents. Incident recording shows that we attended 222 incidents where there was a threat of/attempted suicide and 70 incidents of suicide.  40% of the total number of incidents occurred within a domestic residence.

 

Assist other agencies

Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service, Lancashire Constabulary and Northwest Ambulance Service have entered a Memorandum of Understanding which provides the agreement for Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service to replace Lancashire Constabulary as the supporting agency for Northwest Ambulance Service. This refers to instances where it is necessary to assist Northwest Ambulance Service to gain entry to a property to provide patient care.  This incident type primarily relates to calls where there is concern for the welfare of a patient inside premises and cannot Northwest Ambulance Service gain access. Northwest Ambulance Service staff on scene will request assistance to gain entry.

Over the previous five years we have attended an average of 1,430 incidents a year where we have assisted other agencies. Of the 7,150 incidents attended, 80% were assistance to the Police/Ambulance. Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service also attended 748 incidents to assist NWAS with a bariatric patient. Unfortunately, due to the nature of this incident type, there were 403 fatalities, 1,143 serious injuries and 1,230 minor injuries dealt with by both Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service and NWAS.

 

Building under construction fires

When dealing with any fire in buildings under construction or demolition, whatever its size or complexity, they pose risks to fire and rescue service personnel. There is often a presumption that construction, demolition or building work complies with relevant regulations. This may not always be the case and if work is unregulated or in direct contravention of regulations, this could have a significant impact on the incident and firefighter safety.

Some small construction sites or buildings undergoing building work may be unknown to fire and rescue services, making pre-planning difficult. Sites known to fire and rescue services may alter significantly throughout the life of the project such as changes to access and egress, hazardous material storage, layout and fire protection features. Information obtained from site visits and inspections should be regularly reviewed, updated and communicated to relevant fire and rescue service personnel.

Existing buildings may contain hazardous substances that are associated with either the previous use of the building or building materials. This could include substances such as asbestos, which may not have been highlighted in a survey. If disturbed during building work or firefighting, asbestos presents a significant risk to health. Although sites should be well-secured, using high fencing, hoardings, or other security measures, these may be compromised allowing the public to gain unauthorised access.

Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service has invested time and money in identifying risks associated with buildings under construction by assembling a built environment assessment team.

Over the previous five years, we attended 86 incidents involving buildings under construction. This averages out at 17 incidents of this type a year. Single occupancy dwellings accounted for 40% of the incidents.

 

Other outdoor fires (Primary)

Other outdoor fires are fires in either primary outdoor locations, or fires in non-primary outdoor locations that have casualties, or five or more pumping appliances attending. Outdoor primary locations include outdoor structures such as post or telephone boxes, bridges and tunnels.

Over the previous five years, we have attended 377 incidents of this type, with an average of 75 incidents a year. 54% of these incidents were recorded as accidental or not known cause. 270 incidents (72%) involved outdoor structures, and 57 incidents (13%) involved outdoor equipment and machinery. Unfortunately, there were four fatalities over the last five years, along with 7 serious injuries and 20 slight injuries.

 

Rescue from height

Nationally, the fire and rescue service respond to a wide range of incidents at height involving a variety of environments, such as industry, buildings/dwellings (including buildings under construction) and natural environments (such as steep ground, rock faces).  Locally, Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service covers a wide geographical area, including coastlines to the west, and fells and dales to the north. We respond to incidents where people are stranded in inaccessible locations without specially trained rope rescue equipment, and where there is a high level of risk. Every wholetime firefighter in Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service is trained to carry out a rescue using a rope pack and associated equipment, backed up by specialist teams from Chorley, or Bamber Bridge.

Over the previous five years, we attended an average of 75 rescues from height incidents a year. This equates to 373 incidents in total. Of these, 33% involved non-residential buildings, 29% involved domestic dwellings and 34% involved the outdoors, including rescues from trees and equipment in parks. This incident type saw 19 serious injuries and 29 minor injuries.

 

High rise fires

Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service regard any building that has six floors (ground + 5 floors above) as a high-rise building. Buildings of this size present many challenges to fire and rescue services in the event of a fire. To successfully deal with an incident in a high-rise building, realistic training is essential along with gathering and storing risk information, educating the occupants and enforcing any breaches of legislation. We have identified high rise properties that have cladding that could promote external fire spread and put measures in place to ensure an appropriate, risk-based attendance is sent upon receipt of information that there is a confirmed fire in one of these buildings. There are 57 high rise buildings in Lancashire, ranging from domestic accommodation to hospitals, car parks to entertainment venues, hotels to education.

Over the previous five years, we attended an average of 4 fires a year involving high rise buildings. Of the 18 incidents attended in total, 15 were accidental fires. Domestic dwellings accounted for 61% of the incidents, Student Halls of residence 33%, and Food and Drink accounted for 6%.

Despite the fears of rapid fire growth following the Grenfell tragedy, none of these incidents resulted in the fire spreading beyond the floor of origin.

 

 

Waste disposal site fires

Waste disposal sites nationally are recognised as being susceptible to fires, whether accidental or through negligence. Such fires are an increasingly growing risk and have the potential to impact upon resources and local communities for a significant period.

As well as the health risk to the residents of Lancashire, and firefighters dealing with this type of incident, waste disposal site fires also place a strain on partner agencies such as the Police, Environment Agency, public health, local authorities and the site owners.

There are several waste disposal and recycling centres across the Service area, including a mix of local authority-owned and privately-owned sites. The local authority-owned sites are often regulated by regulatory bodies such as the Environment Agency, while the private sites are regularly managed through unclear management structures.

For this document, ‘waste disposal site fires’ are defined as primary fires where a recycling or refuse structure has been affected.

Over the previous five years, we attended an average of 16 waste disposal site fires a year, equating to a total of 79, of which 59% (47) involved a refuse/rubbish tip with the remaining 41% (32) involving industrial processing.

 

Hazardous materials incident (Hazmat)

There are several pieces of legislation that place a duty on Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service to protect lives, property and the environment from the damaging effects of hazardous materials. We work very closely with partner organisations, particularly the Environment Agency, to try to reduce the impact caused by hazardous materials.  Dangerous hazardous materials are regularly transported through the Service area via rail or road. There are several other associated risks from hazardous materials, with some examples being Control of Major Accident Hazard sites and a multitude of other industrial sites, farms (especially in some of the more rural locations), waste sites and water treatment plants. There are also several high-pressure natural gas transmission pipelines crossing the region. This hazard arises from the high pressure and the possibility of fire and explosion from a release if one of the pipelines failed or sustained damage.

Hazardous materials incident (Major)

Lancashire Fire and Rescue Servicehave categorised a hazardous materials incident to be major if four or more pumping appliances attended. Over the previous five years, we have attended a total of 16 incidents of this type resulting in four people sustaining slight injuries.

 

 

Other transport fires (air, boat, train)

Although air is one of the safest modes of transport, incidents relating to air travel are still present across the UK, with many occurrences related to smaller aircraft such as microlights and gliders. Within Lancashire, to the far west of the county, sits Blackpool airport, where the risk of an air transport fire is high due to the amount of traffic utilising the airport.

Lancashire has over 120 km’s of coastline, several rivers, lakes, reservoirs, canals and other water bodies that have the potential to have boats of varying sizes being used for business and pleasure purposes.

Incidents on the railways can also pose significant risks and potential danger to the community. The west coast main line dissects Lancashire, with trains running between Edinburgh and London stopping at Preston. There are also a few other local lines in operation, all of which pose their own unique levels of hazards and risks.

Over the previous five years, we have attended an average of 3 incidents a year involving vehicles other than those that are road based. Of the 16 incidents that occurred over the five-year period, 7were an accidental (or not known) cause and 9 were deliberate. One incident involved a military aircraft, 2 incidents involved trains/trams, with the remainder (13) involving boats.

 

Secondary fires (accidental)

Over a five-year period, we have attended an average of 1,635 accidental secondary fires a year, equating to 8,176 in total. Over half of these incidents occurred in the five districts of Blackburn with Darwen, Preston, Blackpool, Lancaster, and Burnley. These mainly involved refuse.

 

Secondary fires (anti-social behaviour - ASB)

This type of incident incorporates fires with no casualties, rescues or valuable property loss.  These include outdoor fires, derelict property and derelict vehicle fires. Outdoor fires may involve grass, refuse, wheelie bins and straw.

Although there may be less damage incurred by secondary fires than primary fires, and these incident types generally occur outdoors, not involving people or property, the impact of deliberate secondary fires on Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service is substantial.  Secondary fires are one of the biggest burdens placed on our resources.

Over the previous five years, we have attended an average of 1,572 deliberate secondary fires a year, equating to 7,858 in total. Of these, 69% involved rubbish, in the form of either loose refuse, a skip, a small refuse container or a wheelie bin. Over 50% of the total number of incidents occurred in the districts of Preston, Burnley, Blackburn with Darwen, and Blackpool.

 

Rescue from water

There are several water-related risks across Lancashire, with the Rivers Ribble, Lune, Wyre, Irwell and Calder, each posing their own risks. The risk of members of the public entering the water and getting into difficulty appears to be on the increase. The combination of the River Lune and River Ribble running directly through the cities of Preston and Lancaster respectively, and the growing student population in those cities brings an increased risk of water-related incidents occurring. Lancashire has over 120 km’s of coastline, and there are several lakes, reservoirs and other water bodies across the Service area that pose risks to the community. The west of the county also has three ports, Heysham, Fleetwood and Glasson.

Our crews carry out training in these areas to ensure their knowledge of the hazards posed and ability to respond are first class. Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service continues to prepare for water rescue incidents daily and provides an emergency response 24 hours a day.

Over the previous five years, we attended an average of 46water rescue related incidents a year.  Overall, this equates to 229 water rescue incidents in total. These incidents have seen 28 fatalities,14 serious and 39 minor injuries. The main type of incident we attended involved rescues from rivers/canals (51%) and rescues from lakes/ponds/reservoirs (8%).

 

Other transport or making safe (not fire)

This incident type is split into two categories, ‘making safe (not Road Traffic Collision)’ and ‘other transport incident’. Attendance at these incidents could be following a request from other emergency services or through the 999-call route. Incidents in these categories include cordoning off, body retrieval and stabilising an unsafe structure as well as making the scene safe, releasing a person and making a vehicle safe.

Over the previous five years, we have attended an average of 217 incidents a year of this type, totalling 1,085. Of the 1,085 incidents attended, 89% have resulted in Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service making the scene safe, with 51% of these incidents requiring us to stabilise, or otherwise make safe an unsafe structure. The majority of these have been in a domestic environment however, numerous incidents involved retail, food and drink establishments and outdoor structures. This incident type has resulted in 20 fatalities, 5 serious injuries and 27 minor injuries.

 

Removal of people from objects and Removal of objects from people

People often get stuck, some very seriously and sometimes through no fault of their own.  Fire and rescue services log callouts in a number of categories, including ‘removal of people from objects’ and the rather more wince-inducing ‘removal of objects from people’.  Quite often, these incidents are as simple as removing a ring from a finger, however sometimes over-confidence is to blame, having been spurred on by other people and showing off, resulting in people getting stuck in objects that take fire and rescue service’s a little more time and resources to successfully deal with.

Removal of objects from people

Over the previous five years, we have attended 482 incidents of this type. This equates to an average of 96 incidents a year. Ring removal accounted for 77% of these incidents with other incidents attended including impalements, handcuff removal and removal of other objects such as railings.

 

Removal of people from objects

Over the previous five years, we have attended an average of 72 incidents a year involving the removal of people from objects. Of the 359 incidents attended, 69% involved a trapped limb, with the other 31% being recorded as ‘other’. 42% of incidents occurred in the domestic dwelling environment.

 

Animal rescue

For many years, firefighters have responded to a variety of incidents involving pets, livestock, and wild animals. Animals in distress can pose a potentially serious risk to the public, staff from other agencies and firefighters. There is also an element of risk of members of the public suffering serious injury should they decide to attempt an animal rescue themselves. As Lancashire has large rural areas as well as densely populated areas, Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service inevitably responds to incidents where a range of animals are in distress. We therefore have a range of resources available to deal with this risk, including six specialist animal rescue trained stations based at strategic locations across the county.

Over the previous five years, we attended an average of 184 animal rescues per year, equating to 919 incidents in total. Incidents involving trapped animals accounted for 47% of the total, with the majority involving domestic animals. 27% of animal rescues involved a rescue from height with the majority involving domestic animals.  We attended 143 incidents (16%) involving rescues of animals from water or mud with over half of these involving livestock.

 

Heritage fires

Heritage buildings or their contents may be of economic or cultural importance. These buildings present unique hazards, having been built in a period with no fire safety regulations, using traditional materials and construction methods. Utilities and associated protection measures are unlikely to meet current standards. Wiring may have deteriorated, and circuits can have no isolation point, or isolation may not control all circuits.

Heritage buildings that are open to the public or have had recent alterations may have been modified to meet current regulations. During a building’s lifetime, it may have been altered or extended, using different materials and methods which can cause the structure to behave in unexpected ways. In older properties, internal studded walls may support part of the weight of the property. It is common for heritage buildings to have mezzanine floors, basements, tunnels, and attics.

The materials and design of heritage buildings can increase the expected rate of fire growth and spread. Fire spread may travel in hidden voids, behind facades and in cavities to unexpected sections of the building. Vaults and ducts can cause unchecked fire to spread underfoot. Lack of compartmentation can cause fires to spread to additional rooms. Fire spread may also occur between properties where shared roof spaces or voids exist.

Over the previous five years, we have attended 32 incidents where there has been a fire within a 50-metre radius of a heritage property. This is an average of 6 incidents of this type a year.

 

 

Effecting entry/exit

The fire service is the ‘go to’ service when people need to get in to, or out of a building or vehicle in an emergency. Incident types range from getting access to a house because somebody is in distress, children locked in their bedroom along with animals locked in cars.

Over the previous five years, we have attended an average of 299 incidents a year of this type, totalling 1,494. Of these incidents, 35% involved Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service effecting entry/exit to a dwelling due to somebody being in distress, being a child or, a medical case. Children in vehicles accounted for 14% of the incidents. Over this five-year period, this incident type has resulted in 16 fatalities, 62 serious injuries and 88 slight injuries to members of the public.

 

Lift release

Fire and rescue services are not required to attend incidents where a person is shut in a lift, and not in any immediate physical or medical danger. They should only be called in an emergency. Maintenance and non-emergency lift releases are the responsibility of the building or lift owner, who should ensure there is a 24/7 lift release service provided, as well as communications facilities inside the elevator so a person can raise the alarm.

Over the previous five years, we have attended 778 incidents involving a lift release, equating to an average of 156 incidents a year. 73% of these incidents involved a rescue of someone that was not in distress. 64% of the total number of incidents involved a residential building.

 

Malicious attacks/terrorist incidents

The UK faces a serious and sustained threat from terrorism, including from international groups, domestic extremists and Northern Ireland related groups. The current UK threat level for terrorism is ‘substantial’, which means an attack is likely. While most incidents have occurred in and around major cities in the UK, it is vital that all emergency services are prepared to deal with an incident in their area. For the purposes of this document, ‘terrorist’ refers to any individual or group seeking to use threats or violence as a means of inflicting terror for the purpose of advancing political, religious, racial or ideological causes.  This includes a wide variety of individuals and groups of varying ideologies and backgrounds. Incident types may include Marauding Terrorist Attack, Chemical, Biological Radiological or Nuclear and explosives vehicles as a weapon of choice, or smaller-scale attacks.

We prepare for such incidents by taking advice from the relevant authorities on the potential risks posed and assessing the impact that such an attack/incident may cause through working with key partners as part of the Lancashire Resilience Forum.

We have not attended any incidents of this type over the previous five years.

 

Rescue from mud

Mud rescues involve the use of specialist equipment to recover people and animals from the mud or sinking sand that lies along coasts, river embankments, and lakes. A typical rescue involves using an inflatable raft to support the sinking casualty whilst the crew then use either water or air to soften the mud, allowing the casualty to be pulled to safety.  Incidents where people get stuck in deep mud are particularly hazardous. If not rescued quickly enough, a victim may sink further down, which can be hastened by panicking and moving. In addition, trapped victims could be swept away by the water in areas of large tidal variation or by strong currents.

Teams of rescuers require special expertise that is different, but related to water rescue and as such, Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service have a range of resources available to deal with this type of incident, including eight specialist trained stations based at strategic locations across the county along with close working relationships with Bay Search and Rescue Teams and the Coastguard.

Over the previous five years, we have attended 46 incidents, which equates to 9 incidents a year on average. The districts of West Lancashire, Fylde, and Lancaster accounted for 50% of the incidents.

 

Rescue from depth

Special service incidents involving rescues from below ground could involve shafts, caves, tunnels, sewers or wells. Rescues of this type are often protracted in nature with access difficult for fire appliances. They may require the use of technical rope skills, and/or additional appliances such as an aerial ladder platform.

Over the previous five years, we have attended 25 incidents, with 18 involving outdoor rescues, and 7 rescues from buildings. There was one fatality, eight people sustained serious injuries and seven sustained minor injuries.

 

Resource to risk

Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service aims to allocate resources to risk, providing the most effective and efficient service and value for money to the people of Lancashire. Our offering is based around prevention, protection and response arrangements which are all tailored to current and emerging risks and applied proportionately to maintain risk at levels that are as low as reasonably practicable.

We aim to primarily prevent fires and other emergencies from happening. We allocate resources through our prevention and protection teams, supported by operational crews and partner agencies to educate inform and advise our diverse communities.

When incidents occur, we operate a range of operational crewing systems both wholetime and on-call. This allows us to allocate resources effectively based on the risk associated with geographical areas within Lancashire. To maintain a highly trained operational provision we are supported by our learning and development centre, which incorporates specialist training facilities and highly skilled and accredited instructors.

The heat map below shows the location of our fire stations mapped against overall incident activity levels. The areas of lowest demand are represented by the light green shading and moves through darker green, to amber to red to display the areas of our highest demand.  Many of our stations are in areas of high activity, but we also have stations where incident levels are comparatively lower, but the impact of fires and other emergencies could be significant.

 

 

Figure 6: Heat map showing centres of high incident activity (Preston, Blackpool and Fylde coast, Blackburn, Accrington, Lancaster and Morecambe, and Burnley) across Lancashire and location of Fire Stations.

District profiles

Lancashire is divided into 6 Areas. Within these areas are the Lancashire-14 districts:

·         Northern –Lancaster

·         Southern – Chorley, South Ribble and West Lancashire

·         Eastern – Blackburn with Darwen, Hyndburn and Ribble Valley

·         Western – Wyre, Fylde and Blackpool

·         Pennine – Pendle, Burnley and Rossendale

·         Central - Preston

Each district faces its own unique risks and to effectively assess the risk, district plans are developed based on local intelligence and supported by a district intelligence profile that is produced annually.

The purpose of the profiles is to highlight activity and risk across each district both in terms of incident, geographical and people risk. This evidence-based document is designed to support the district plans by highlighting the most significant issues, the highest risk groups to target and the most significant areas to target.

Using previous incident activity, prevention and protection data, known demographic data and Mosaic estimate lifestyle data this report aims to inform who and where are those most vulnerable from fire, the location of risk and the resource demand against availability (applicable to on-call stations only).

Incident data is based upon an average over the preceding three years. 

Additional lifestyle data analysis is based on the Mosaic data, supplied by Experian Ltd.

 

Appendix A – Full PESTELO analysis

Political

Political factors continue to create uncertainty for fire and rescue services, both nationally and locally. Changes in government policy, national funding priorities, legislation, public-sector reform and local governance arrangements may affect how Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service plans, funds and delivers its services.

International conflict and global instability

International conflict and political instability, including the prolonged Russia/Ukraine war and continuing conflict in the Middle East, may continue to affect the UK through energy and fuel price volatility, disruption to global trade and supply chains, displacement of populations, terrorism risks, demand for national resilience activity and potential inflationary pressures. Although these matters are not directly within LFRS control, they may affect procurement, fleet, fuel resilience, equipment availability, budget planning and business continuity arrangements.

UK terrorism, public disorder and infrastructure attacks

Domestic political unrest, terrorism, public disorder and attacks on infrastructure also remain relevant. The National Risk Register separately assesses venue attacks, public disorder and attacks on infrastructure, and Martyn’s Law preparation now has statutory guidance. LFRS should continue to test assumptions through business continuity and Lancashire Resilience Forum arrangements, including public-disorder, infrastructure and marauding-attack scenarios.

National security and whole-of-society resilience

The wider national security context has changed. The Strategic Defence Review 2025 places greater emphasis on whole-of-society resilience, including energy security, health resilience, economic security, democratic and societal resilience, cyber security, critical national infrastructure, drones, supply chains and support to civil contingencies. These areas are relevant to LFRS through business continuity planning, partnership working, local resilience arrangements and the ability to maintain services during significant disruption.

Economic

Commercial and high street decline

Economic pressures on town centres, retail and commercial premises may increase fire and rescue risk. Business failure, vacant buildings and changes of use can create risks from empty or derelict premises, arson, anti-social behaviour, rough sleeping, unauthorised occupation and building conversions that may not fully meet expected safety standards.

Deprivation

Deprivation is measured across England through the combined index of multiple deprivation 2025 (IMD 2025) which is the official measure of relative deprivation for small areas known as lower-level super output areas in England.

Lancashire contains some of the most deprived areas in England. Of the 296 local authority districts, Blackpool ranks 1st, Burnley 4th, Blackburn with Darwen 11th, Pendle 13th and Hyndburn 16th, placing them within the most deprived 10% of authorities nationally. Preston ranks 57th, within the most deprived 20%, while Ribble Valley is within the least deprived 10%.

Deprivation is also concentrated at neighbourhood level. In Lancashire, 182 of 945 LSOAs (19.3%) are in the most deprived 10% nationally, with a further 119 (12.6%) in the second decile. The highest proportions of neighbourhoods in the most deprived decile are in Blackpool (40.4%), Burnley (40.0%), Blackburn with Darwen (37.4%), Pendle (35.1%) and Hyndburn (32.1%). At ward level, 56 of 253 Lancashire wards (22.1%) are in the most deprived 10% nationally.

Income deprivation affecting children is particularly concentrated in some parts of Lancashire. The highest levels are in Blackpool at 55.1%, Burnley at 52.9%, and Blackburn with Darwen at 51.0%, while Ribble Valley has the lowest level at 17.2%. Children in some districts are significantly more likely to be living in low-income households, which may increase vulnerability and influence prevention targeting, partnership working and wider community risk planning.

Income deprivation affecting older people also varies significantly across the county. Blackburn with Darwen has the highest proportion at 27.0%, followed by Blackpool at 26.3%, while Ribble Valley has the lowest level at 7.4%. This is relevant to LFRS because older people experiencing income deprivation may be more exposed to risks linked to poor housing, fuel poverty, social isolation, reduced mobility, and reduced ability to prevent, respond to or recover from fires and other emergencies.

Deprivation is strongly relevant to community risk because it can be associated with poorer health outcomes, income pressures, housing quality, access to services and vulnerability during emergencies. For Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service, this information helps identify communities where targeted prevention, protection, safeguarding, partnership working and emergency response planning may have the greatest impact. It also supports a risk-based approach to allocating resources and tailoring safety interventions to local need.

Inflation / cost of living

Increases to mortgage and rental costs, due to rising interest rates, can lead to higher rates of homelessness and people living in less safe types of accommodation such as ‘houses in multiple occupation’ (HMOs), with potential for higher risk to life in the event of fire.

There is also a potential for higher rates of business failure due to supply chain issues, unsustainable rises in supply costs, and / or reduced demand due to ‘cost of living’ pressures on consumers leading to increases in numbers of empty and derelict premises, with associated fire risks.

Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service could also face longer lead times and higher prices for fire and rescue service vehicles, equipment and consumables leading to shortages of parts and budgetary pressures.

Fuel Poverty

Fuel poverty affects low-income households living in homes that cannot be kept warm at reasonable cost. In England, it is measured using the Low Income Low Energy Efficiency (LILEE) metric: a household is fuel poor where the home has an energy efficiency rating of band D or below and heating costs leave disposable income below the poverty line. The latest available data covers fuel poverty in 2024 and winter fuel payment recipients in 2024/25. From 2024-25, winter fuel payment eligibility was restricted to pension-age households receiving an eligible means-tested benefit, with payments made at household level.

Fuel poverty is relevant because households struggling to heat their homes may be more likely to use alternative or unsafe heating methods, limit heating in ways that affect health and wellbeing, or live in poorer quality housing. This can increase vulnerability, particularly among older residents and those with health conditions. Understanding where fuel poverty is highest helps us target prevention activity, safe and well visits, partnership referrals and winter safety messaging to households at greater risk.

Socio-Cultural

Population Changes

Lancashire’s population continues to grow and age.

Age-group projections show important differences in future population structure. The number of children aged 0 to 17 is expected to fall by 19,469 over the projection period, while the working-age population is projected to grow gradually. The older population is projected to increase each year, with the number of people aged 80 and over in In mid-2025, the population was estimated at 1,615,860. The median age was 41.9 in Lancashire, compared with 40.6 in England. In the year to mid-2025, deaths exceeded births by 2,009.

Between mid-2024 and mid-2025, the population grew by 1.2%, above the England growth rate of 0.4%. Growth was fastest in Wyre, with Preston, Ribble Valley and Burnley each growing by around 1.8%. Lancaster was the only authority to decline, falling by 95 people. Older age groups are increasing fastest: the 65 and over population grew by 2.2%, compared with lower growth in the 0–15 and 16–64 age groups. Population change was driven mainly by migration rather than natural change.

The latest population projections for 2022 to 2047 show that growth across the Lancashire is expected to vary significantly by district. Overall, Lancashire is projected to grow by 12.0% over the 25-year period, reaching approximately 1.74 million people by 2047. This projected increase is below the forecast growth for both the North West and England.

Projected growth is expected to be strongest in Ribble Valley (25.6%), Preston (23.7%), Fylde (21.7%), Wyre (21.2%) and Chorley (15.6%), all of which are above the England average. In contrast, Blackburn with Darwen (3.2%) and Blackpool (3.7%) are projected to see the lowest increases.

Lancashire-12 expected to almost double from 68,980 in 2022 to 132,018 in 2047.

The old age dependency ratio, which measures the number of people of state pension age per 1,000 people of working age, is projected to increase in every locality except Rossendale. The highest ratios are expected in Fylde and Wyre, where the ratio is projected to rise from just over 450 in 2022 to over 500 by 2047, compared with an England increase from 275 to 300 over the same period.

Population growth and ageing are important risk factors. An ageing population and increasing complexity of care needs may increase fire and rescue risk. More people may be living at home with mobility issues, dementia, sensory impairment, long-term health conditions or limited support. This can affect their ability to prevent fires, respond to warnings, escape unaided or recover from an emergency. They influence demand for prevention, protection and response activity, including Home Fire Safety Checks, safeguarding referrals, emergency medical-related incidents, road risk, dwelling fire risk and support during extreme weather or wider emergencies. Understanding where population growth, ageing and migration are concentrated helps us plan services, target resources and tailor engagement to changing community needs.

Households and Residential buildings

Households: One person households in the Lancashire-12 area are projected to rise by 17.9% to 205,038 households, or 34.9% of all households, by 2043, slightly higher than the England projected average of 33%.  Fylde (39.9%), Preston (38.7%), Hyndburn (37.2%), Burnley (37.7%) and Pendle (36.7%) are projected to have some of the largest percentages of one person households in England in 2043. Blackpool (41.2%), is projected to have the seventh highest percentage of one person households in England (out of 326 local authority areas).

The 2021 census recorded that across the 14 Lancashire Districts there were 90,590 (17.2%) of households with an adult living alone aged 65 or over. 17.42% of all households in Fylde and 17.40% of all households in Wyre had one person in this age-group, which are amongst the highest rates in England and Wales.

Dwellings: In 2016 it was predicted that between 2016 – 2041 Lancashire’s dwellings would increase by 7.3% to 674,107.  In 2021, Lancashire had a total dwelling stock of 692,404 of which 87.3% was owner occupied or privately rented. Lancashire’s rise in dwellings has already surpassed the 2041 prediction just 6 years after it was made. This poses a risk to Lancashire, not only by increasing the number of dwellings we attend but this also impacts planning as the county continues to grow faster than estimated.

Living alone may not necessarily affect an individual’s fire risk; however, living alone combined with specific demographic characteristics can do so. Age, mental health, physical wellbeing and living environments can all play a part in contributing to an individual’s circumstances for them to be considered at a higher risk of death or injury caused by fire.

Communal establishments and institutional vulnerability: Communal establishments such as care homes, hospitals, hospices and custodial settings present specific socio-cultural and operational risks because they accommodate people who may require support to evacuate or who may be dependent on staff, systems or specialist arrangements. Overcrowding, staff shortages, complex care needs or deliberate fire-setting may increase these risks. LFRS will continue to use site-specific risk information, protection activity and partnership arrangements to understand and manage these premises.

Overcrowded and insecure housing: Overcrowded, insecure or poor-quality housing is associated with higher levels of deprivation and may increase the risk of fire and harm from fire. Overcrowding can make escape more difficult, increase the use of cooking, heating and electrical equipment, and contribute to unsafe living conditions. Houses in multiple occupation, temporary accommodation and informal living arrangements should continue to be considered within prevention, protection and local intelligence work.

 

District	Population (2024)	Area (sq. km)	Homes (2025)	Household projections 2032[1]	IMD rank (296)
Burnley	99,233	111	41,145	43,327	4
BwD	162,540	137	59,950	62,204	11
Blackpool	144,191	35	65,014	66,558	1
Chorley	120,839	203	52,318	56,335	190
Fylde	85,447	166	40,311	44,447	188
Hyndburn	86,058	73	35,643	37,154	16
Lancaster	145,006	576	62,625	65,804	135
Pendle	99,777	169	39,097	41,015	13
Preston	162,864	142	64,608	70,570	57
Ribble Valley	65,794	583	28,832	31,935	273
Rossendale	73,045	138	31,159	32,548	60
South Ribble	116,113	113	50,246	53,028	227
West Lancs	121,995	347	50,523	53,068	176
Wyre	118,743	283	54,671	60,207	150
Total	1,601,645	3,076	676,142	718,200

Figure A: Lancashire demographics

Cultural Diversity

The 2021 Census shows that Lancashire remains predominantly White, but its communities are becoming more ethnically diverse. The largest ethnic group was White, accounting for 86.6% of the population, down from 90.4% in 2011. Black and minority ethnic communities represented 13.5% of the population, with the ‘Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh’ group accounting for 10.4%. Numerically, there were almost 136,756 black and minority ethnic people living in Lancashire.

Across Lancashire, the White ethnic group increased by 5,503 people, or 0.4%, between the 2011 and 2021 Census. Over the same period, the number of people from ethnicities other than White rose by 64,754, an increase of 46.0%. This increase was seen in all Lancashire local authority areas, although the scale and proportion of change varied significantly by district.

Blackburn with Darwen recorded the largest numerical increase in residents from ethnicities other than White, rising by 15,873 people, or 34.9%. Preston had the next largest increase, rising by 12,710 people, or 45.7%, followed by Pendle, which increased by 10,199 people, or 56.6%. Wyre recorded the smallest numerical increase, with 932 additional residents from ethnicities other than White, although this still represented a 49.1% increase.

In percentage terms, Ribble Valley recorded the largest increase in ethnicities other than White, rising by 88.8%, equivalent to 1,091 people. West Lancashire also saw a substantial percentage increase of 75.6%, equivalent to 1,574 people. Rossendale recorded the lowest percentage increase in the area, at 27.5%, equivalent to 1,158 people.

The highest proportions of residents from ethnicities other than White in 2021 were in Blackburn with Darwen, Pendle and Preston, at 39.7%, 29.6% and 27.6% respectively. These areas are above the proportions for England and Wales, at 18.5%, and England, at 19.0%. The remaining eleven local authority areas were below the England and Wales figure. The lowest proportions were in Wyre, West Lancashire and Ribble Valley, at 2.6%, 3.2% and 3.8% respectively.

Understanding the ethnic diversity of Lancashire’s communities is important for a fire and rescue service because it supports effective community risk management, prevention, protection and engagement activity. Changes in population profile can influence how safety messages are communicated, where targeted prevention work may be needed, and how services are designed to be accessible, inclusive and trusted by all communities. Areas with higher or growing proportions of ethnicities other than White may require tailored engagement approaches, translated or culturally appropriate safety information, and strong links with community representatives to support prevention, preparedness and response

Health and Wellbeing

Life expectancy: Life expectancy at birth remains a key measure of population health and geographic inequalities. It estimates the average number of years a person would live if they experienced the age-specific mortality rates for that area throughout their life. Healthy life expectancy adds an important quality-of-life dimension by estimating how many of those years are likely to be spent in good general health. Together, these measures show not only how long people are likely to live, but how long they may live in good health and how this varies between places and communities. They are strongly influenced by deprivation and wider social conditions, making them important indicators of vulnerability and community risk.

Life expectancy at birth: For the 2023-2025 period, life expectancy at birth in Lancashire-12 is significantly worse than the England average for both males and females. Male life expectancy in Lancashire-12 is 78.7 years compared with 79.7 years for England. Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool are also significantly worse than England, with Blackpool having the lowest male life expectancy in the country when ranked against counties and unitary authorities. Female life expectancy follows a similar pattern, with Lancashire-12 at 82.5 years compared with 83.5 years for England. Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool are again significantly worse than England, and Blackpool has the lowest female life expectancy nationally when ranked against counties and unitary authorities.

At district level, there is a clear variation. For males, Ribble Valley and West Lancashire have significantly better life expectancy than England, while South Ribble and Fylde are statistically similar. The remaining eight Lancashire districts are significantly lower than England, ranging from 78.9 years in Chorley to 76.5 years in Burnley. For females, only Ribble Valley and South Ribble have significantly higher life expectancy than England, Fylde is statistically similar, and the remaining nine districts are significantly lower, ranging from 82.8 years in Wyre to 80.2 years in Hyndburn. This variation reinforces the need for place-based analysis and district intelligence to inform prevention priorities.

Healthy life expectancy: Healthy life expectancy is particularly important because it shows the number of years people can expect to live in good general health. For 2022-2024, healthy life expectancy at birth in Lancashire is 59.3 years for males and 60.3 years for females, statistically similar to England at 60.9 and 61.3 years respectively. However, Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool have significantly lower healthy life expectancy at birth for both males and females. In Blackburn with Darwen, male healthy life expectancy is 54.0 years and female healthy life expectancy is 54.4 years. In Blackpool, the figures are 50.9 years for males and 51.8 years for females.

Healthy life expectancy is consistently below retirement age, indicating that many residents may experience degrees of ill health during working age and may not be able to enjoy retirement in good health. This has important implications for community safety. Working-age ill health can affect household income, mobility, social connection, caring responsibilities and the ability to maintain safe homes. Later-life ill health can increase reliance on carers, health and social care services, assistive equipment, heating, oxygen or other risk factors that may be relevant to home fire safety and emergency response.

Falls, unintentional injuries and hospital admissions: Falls are the largest cause of emergency hospital admissions for older people and can lead to loss of confidence, reduced independence, admission to long-term care and increased pressure on health and social care services. Although falls admission rates for people aged 65 and over are currently better than England in Lancashire the number of older residents predicted to fall or be admitted to hospital following a fall is projected to increase by 2040.

Limiting long-term illness: Long-term illness and disability can reduce independence, mobility, resilience and people’s ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from emergencies. In Lancashire, the burden of many long-term conditions and premature mortality is higher in more deprived areas, increasing the importance of understanding where health-related vulnerability is concentrated.

Obesity: Being overweight or obese is associated with increased risk of long-term illness, including heart disease, hypertension, stroke, type 2 diabetes, cancer and reduced healthy life expectancy. In Lancashire around two in three adults are overweight or obese, which is significantly higher than England, and adult obesity prevalence is also significantly higher than nationally.

Drug and alcohol abuse: Drug and alcohol misuse are complex public health and community safety issues that can affect individuals, families and communities. Lancashire has a significantly higher rate of hospital admissions for alcohol-specific conditions than England, and alcohol-related mortality is also significantly higher. Drug misuse estimates for opiate and/or crack cocaine use in Lancashire are similar to England, but rates are significantly higher in Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool.

Smoking prevalence: Tobacco use remains a major public health risk and is linked to cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease, stroke and poor pregnancy outcomes. Adult smoking prevalence in Lancashire-12 is similar to England, but Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool are significantly higher, and smoking-attributable hospital admissions and mortality are higher in Lancashire-12 than nationally.

Physical activity levels: Physical activity reduces the risk of many long-term conditions and supports mental wellbeing, mobility, sleep and independence. Adult activity levels in Lancashire are similar to England, but activity is significantly lower in Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool, and inactivity is significantly higher in Lancashire than nationally.

Mental health and wellbeing, hoarding and homelessness: Mental health issues, hoarding and homelessness should be recognised as interconnected socio-cultural risks. People experiencing poor mental health, social isolation, hoarding behaviours or homelessness may face increased vulnerability to fire and other emergencies. Poor mental health can affect decision-making, risk awareness, self-care, social connection and a person’s ability to seek or accept support. In Lancashire people living in the most deprived areas are nearly twice as likely to experience mental health problems as those in the least deprived areas, including depression, anxiety and more severe mental illness. Hoarding can increase fire loading, block escape routes, restrict firefighter access and increase risk to neighbouring properties. Homelessness and insecure accommodation can also increase exposure to unsafe environments. These issues continue to inform safeguarding arrangements, Safe and Well activity, partnership referrals and prevention targeting.

Health is an important indicator of community risk because it helps show where people may be more likely to experience vulnerability, reduced resilience, or poorer outcomes during and after emergencies. Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy and inequalities in health provide evidence about the wider social, economic and environmental factors that shape people’s ability to live safely and independently. For a fire and rescue service, this information is important because people living with poor health, disability, long-term conditions, frailty, social isolation or economic disadvantage may be at greater risk from accidental dwelling fires, injury, delayed escape, road risk, extreme weather, power outages and other emergencies. Understanding these patterns helps LFRS target prevention, protection, response planning and partnership activity more effectively, ensuring resources are focused where they can have the greatest impact in making Lancashire safer.  Health and wellbeing should continue to be considered alongside deprivation, age, housing, living alone, fuel poverty and disability when identifying people and places at increased risk.

Wider health and wellbeing factors are important because they can increase vulnerability in the home and during emergencies. Poor health, frailty, reduced mobility, mental ill health, substance misuse, smoking, obesity, inactivity and long-term illness can affect a person’s ability to prevent fire, respond quickly, escape safely or recover after an incident. They may also be linked to wider risks such as unsafe cooking or heating, smoking-related fires, hoarding, self-neglect, living alone and increased need for multi-agency support. Residents with chronic health conditions may be more dependent on medical equipment, heating, oxygen, adaptations or partner agency support, all of which can influence fire risk and emergency response needs. Understanding concentrations of long-term illness can help strengthen district profiles. Obesity can contribute to complex evacuation or rescue needs. Substance misuse can increase the risk of accidental and deliberate fires. This information should therefore be considered alongside deprivation, age, housing, fuel poverty and disability when developing district profiles, targeting Safe and Well activity, making safeguarding referrals, supporting partnership working and planning prevention, protection and response activity.

Fly-tipping and environmental disorder

Fly-tipping and environmental disorder can contribute to deliberate fires, anti-social behaviour and wider community harm. Dumped waste may attract vermin, contain hazardous materials, increase fire loading and provide fuel for deliberate secondary fires. LFRS will continue to work with local authorities, the Environment Agency and community safety partners to identify repeat locations, support prevention activity and reduce fire risk linked to waste and illegal disposal.

Declining trust in public authorities

Public trust in institutions supports community resilience and the effectiveness of emergency services. Declining confidence in public authorities, influenced by economic pressure, inequality and polarisation, may make it harder for LFRS to engage communities, share safety messages, encourage participation in consultations and secure compliance with emergency guidance. It may also increase hostility towards staff and partners. LFRS should continue to monitor public satisfaction, complaints, consultation feedback and community sentiment; strengthen engagement with trusted community leaders and partners; and maintain open, transparent and accountable communications.

Disinformation, misinformation and malinformation

Disinformation, misinformation and malinformation, particularly through digital channels, can distort facts, undermine public confidence and create confusion during major incidents. False or misleading narratives may affect public safety, increase fear, generate additional demand and make it harder for LFRS and partners to communicate risk, provide reassurance and encourage behavioural change. Emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, may increase the volume and sophistication of inaccurate information. LFRS should continue to monitor emerging false narratives, provide clear and accessible safety messages, work with trusted partners, and support rapid communication responses where public safety may be affected.

Technological and Infrastructure

Low Carbon Technologies and Energy Transition

The transition towards a low carbon economy is accelerating across Lancashire and presents a developing risk profile for Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service (LFRS). The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), battery energy storage systems (BESS), domestic energy storage installations, renewable energy technologies and emerging hydrogen infrastructure is changing the nature of fire and rescue incidents and the associated prevention, protection and response requirements.

Electric Vehicles (EVs): Forecasts indicate significant growth in electric vehicle ownership across Lancashire over the next decade, supported by the continued expansion of public and private charging infrastructure. Alongside this transition, the widespread use of lithium-ion batteries in transportation, commercial operations and domestic settings is creating new and complex fire risks.

Lithium-ion battery incidents can present challenges that differ significantly from traditional fires. Whilst such technologies are generally safe when correctly designed, installed and maintained, battery failures can result in thermal runaway, producing intense fire conditions, toxic gases, and a heightened potential for fire re-ignition. These incidents can be prolonged, resource intensive and require specialist operational tactics.

Hydrogen and Alternative Fuels: Hydrogen is emerging as a potential alternative fuel source within parts of Lancashire's industrial and transport sectors. Planned investment in hydrogen production, storage and distribution infrastructure aligns with national decarbonisation ambitions and may support future industrial growth within the county.

Whilst hydrogen offers significant environmental benefits, it introduces distinct fire and explosion hazards that differ from conventional fuels. As hydrogen technologies become more prevalent, LFRS will need to continually assess operational, regulatory, and planning implications.

Renewable Energy: In the renewable energy environment, energy generated by solar, wind, biogas and other sources is increasingly being stored in lithium-ion battery solutions.  In the commercial environment this can be in the form of a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) and are a fundamental part of the UK’s move toward a sustainable energy system.

The installation of battery energy storage system systems both in the UK and around the globe is increasing at an exponential rate. The county has seen a significant increase in planning applications submitted to build these sites in both rural and populated areas, which in turn is requiring significantly more resource within LFRS to deal with this emerging risk.  These sites consist of several shipping container size battery units which contain a significant number of lithium batteries within them, the number of these units on a site in the county range from ten units, to six hundred and forty-eight. A number of these sites have had their planning application refused by the local authority planning department and are currently appealing this decision via a planning appeal to the Secretary of State.

Due to the speed and scale of the introduction of this technology formalised UK guidance has been limited on what fire precautions need to be installed to reduce the fire risk, and what firefighting facilities are required to enable fire and rescue services to both extinguish fires and mitigate environmental impacts. The National Fire Chiefs Council has produced some guidance to support fire and rescue services in dealing with these sites and the government has changed planning guidance to advise developers that they should consult with the fire and rescue services prior to applying for planning permission. 

Domestic Energy Storage and Renewable Technologies: The increasing installation of domestic solar photovoltaic systems, battery storage systems and electric vehicle charging facilities is changing the risk profile within residential premises.

Whilst these technologies support environmental sustainability objectives, they can introduce hazards that are unfamiliar to occupants and responders. In addition, the growth of non-standard or self-installed energy storage systems presents potential concerns around electrical safety, battery integrity and fire risk.

As household energy generation and storage becomes more commonplace, LFRS is likely to see an increasing number of incidents involving renewable energy systems and associated battery technologies

In the domestic world, modern solar panels are increasingly linked to a domestic battery, Domestic Energy Storage System. Domestic Energy Storage System’s store energy from domestic Photo voltaic Solar) panels for use in the home rather than feeding back into the National grid. They are becoming increasingly popular with both new builds and refurbishments. Due to the cost-of-living crisis, there are increasing cases of “homemade” domestic energy storage systems using second hand Electric Vehicle Lithium-ion battery packs.  These will also be problematic in the same way as battery energy storage system sites and fire and rescue services will not have any prior information on the presence of these in houses. In 2026, new plug-in domestic solar panel technology was introduced in the UK.

As the proliferation of alternative energy sources and energy storage increase, we are likely to attend more incidents involving Lithium-Ion batteries.

Digital dependency, data capability and critical system failure

LFRS is increasingly reliant on digital platforms, connected systems, data and technology-enabled processes to support mobilising, communications, prevention, protection, corporate services and operational decision-making. Failure or disruption of critical digital systems could delay emergency response, affect access to risk information, disrupt internal communications and reduce the ability to maintain essential services. LFRS will continue to map critical digital dependencies, test manual fallbacks, strengthen data governance and quality, and ensure business continuity arrangements reflect system outage scenarios.

Cyber security and cyber resilience

Cyber security remains a key technological risk. The cyber threat landscape has changed significantly, with public sector organisations, emergency services and local authorities routinely targeted. Increasing use of cloud-based services, connected devices and digital systems has widened the Service’s attack surface and increased reliance on secure, resilient technology. Cyber attacks could affect operational availability, access to information, communications, data security, supplier systems, public confidence and the ability to maintain critical services.

National Cyber Security Centre good practice continues to evolve in response to changing threats, making compliance and assurance increasingly challenging. National risk planning also highlights the potential for cyber incidents to coincide with communications failure, technology outages and wider disruption to critical infrastructure. LFRS will continue to strengthen cyber resilience by aligning with NCSC good practice, improving incident response capability and support arrangements, testing recovery plans, strengthening supplier assurance, and ensuring cyber resilience is built into all digital transformation activity.

Data infrastructure and information resilience

Loss, corruption, poor quality or unavailability of data could affect risk profiling, mobilising, prevention targeting, audit activity, performance reporting and strategic decision-making. LFRS will continue to improve data quality, ownership, governance, interoperability and assurance so that data remains reliable, accessible and secure during both routine operations and disruption.

Emergency Services Network (ESN)/Airwave transition

The Home Office’s ESN programme will replace the legacy Airwave TETRA radio system used by police, fire and ambulance services across Great Britain. Project activity is underway, but national delays are affecting progress. Changes to the national approach will place additional responsibility on individual services to review products, increasing workload and pressure on local capacity. With full voice service readiness targeted for March 2028 and Airwave shutdown scheduled for the end of 2029, further delays or insufficient local capacity could affect transition readiness and the continuity of operational communications.

Technology-related infrastructure dependencies

Technology-related infrastructure dependencies remain under review. Disruption to electricity, telecommunications, positioning, navigation and timing services, data infrastructure or critical suppliers could affect mobilising, communication, navigation, building systems, fleet operations and corporate functions. LFRS will continue to test resilience arrangements, identify single points of failure, maintain alternative communication routes and ensure critical suppliers are considered within business continuity planning.

Infrastructure

Lancashire has a wide and varied infrastructure risk profile. In addition to its extensive transport networks, the county contains reservoirs, dams, ports, canals, airports, airfields, wind turbines and other critical infrastructure. These assets support the local economy, transport connectivity, utilities, recreation and energy generation, but they also create a range of risks that Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service must understand, plan for and respond to.

Road network: Lancashire’s economy relies heavily on its motorway and major road network. The M6 runs north to south through the county, passing Lancaster and Preston. The M55 connects Preston to Blackpool and is 11.5 miles, or 18.3 km, long. The M65 runs from Colne and connects Burnley, Accrington, Blackburn and Preston. The M61 links Preston and Chorley, while the M66 begins 500 metres, or 0.3 miles, inside the county boundary near Edenfield and provides a route between Lancashire, Manchester and the trans-Pennine M62. The M58 crosses the southernmost part of the county from the M6 near Wigan to Liverpool via Skelmersdale.

Other significant routes include the A59, which runs east to west between Liverpool in Merseyside and Skipton in North Yorkshire via Ormskirk, Preston and Clitheroe; the A565 to Southport; the A56 from Ramsbottom to Padiham via Haslingden and from Colne to Skipton; the A585 from Kirkham to Fleetwood; the A666 from the A59 north of Blackburn to Bolton via Darwen; and the A683 from Heysham to Kirkby Lonsdale via Lancaster.

From a fire and rescue service perspective, this road network creates risk through the volume and speed of traffic, the movement of people and goods, and the potential for road traffic collisions, vehicle fires and hazardous materials incidents. Motorway incidents can involve multiple vehicles, heavy goods vehicles, fuel spillages and difficult access due to congestion or road closures. Disruption on key routes can also affect emergency response times, business continuity and the movement of resources across the county.

Rail network: Lancashire is home to 62 railway stations operating across more than 200 miles of track. These range from busy commuter stations such as Preston and Lancaster, which are located on the West Coast Main Line, to smaller and sometimes unmanned rural stations. Lancashire also hosts part of a heritage rail line, the East Lancashire Railway, which runs from Rawtenstall along a 12-mile route to Heywood in Greater Manchester.

Rail infrastructure contributes to risk through the potential for train collisions, derailments, fires, rescues from difficult or restricted locations, and incidents involving overhead lines, embankments, tunnels, bridges or unmanned stations. Busy stations and mainline services can create complex multi-agency incidents involving large numbers of passengers, while rural or heritage rail locations may present access, communications and evacuation challenges.

Tram network: Lancashire also has an 11-mile tram system operating from Starr Gate in Blackpool to Fleetwood in the Wyre district. Part of this network operates within a shared space zone, an urban design approach that reduces the separation between trams, vehicles and pedestrians. In some areas, kerbs and traffic signs have been removed to create a more open environment.

The tram network presents risks linked to collisions involving trams, vehicles, cyclists or pedestrians, particularly in shared space areas where road users interact more closely. Incidents may require casualty extrication, management of electrical hazards, crowd control and coordination with transport operators. The popularity of Blackpool as a visitor destination may also increase seasonal demand and the likelihood of incidents involving people unfamiliar with the local transport layout.

Ports and maritime infrastructure: Lancashire has three ports, located at Heysham, Fleetwood and Glasson Dock. There are also several maritime-related sites serving leisure craft, including Preston Docks. Heysham is the largest port and is a deep berth facility capable of handling some of the world’s largest vessels. It is served by a railway station and the M6 Bay Gateway link road. The port is a key gateway for Irish Sea trade and is attracting significant investment, including a £10 million improvement programme. Its proximity to gas fields and the world’s largest offshore wind farm, Walney Extension, has also influenced the types of goods handled and services provided.

Ports and maritime sites can generate a range of fire and rescue risks, including vessel fires, hazardous materials incidents, rescues from water, confined space rescues, pollution incidents and fires involving stored goods, fuels or industrial equipment. The movement of freight and passengers can create complex operational environments, while the presence of deep-water berths, tidal conditions and large vessels may require specialist equipment, joint working and pre-planning with port operators and other emergency services.

Rivers, estuaries, canals and water bodies: Lancashire mainly lies within the North West river basin district, although a very small part near Earby in Pendle district falls within the Humber river basin district. Most water bodies in Lancashire eventually flow into the Irish Sea through the estuaries of the Ribble, Wyre and Lune rivers. Some in the south of the county flow southwards and join tributaries of the Mersey. Only water bodies in the Humber river basin district flow eastwards into Yorkshire and eventually merge with the North Sea.

The term water body can refer to a river, lake, reservoir, canal, aquifer or inter-tidal part of an estuary. As part of its industrial past, Lancashire developed an extensive canal network extending into neighbouring counties. This includes the Leeds and Liverpool Canal, Lancaster Canal, Sankey Canal, Bridgewater Canal, Rochdale Canal, Ashton Canal and Manchester Ship Canal.

This network contributes to risk through flooding, rescues from water, incidents involving leisure users, pollution events and access challenges along canals, rivers and estuaries. Tidal areas, fast-flowing rivers, steep embankments, remote canal stretches and poor weather can increase risk to the public and responders. Waterways can also act as barriers during major incidents, affecting evacuation, access and the movement of emergency resources.

Airports and airfields: Lancashire is served by a small number of airports and airfields, some of which are within the county boundary. Blackpool Airport no longer operates domestic or international passenger flights, but it remains home to flying schools, private operators and the North West Air Ambulance. There is also an operational airfield at Warton near Preston, where BAE Systems has a major assembly and test facility. Manchester Airport is the main airport for the North West region, with Liverpool John Lennon Airport and Leeds Bradford Airport also nearby.

Aviation infrastructure presents risks involving aircraft incidents, fuel fires, rescues from aircraft or hangars, and incidents linked to specialist industrial or engineering facilities. Although large-scale passenger aviation activity is limited within Lancashire itself, local airfields still require emergency planning due to flying schools, private aviation, air ambulance operations and the presence of the major BAE Systems facility at Warton. Incidents may require specialist firefighting, casualty care, site access planning and coordination with airport or site emergency arrangements.

Reservoirs and dams: There are more than 100 registered dams and reservoirs in Lancashire, owned by United Utilities and private owners. The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 requires Category 1 responders such as Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service to have plans in place to respond to all emergencies, including flooding. Due to the volume of water that reservoirs can hold, they have been identified as high risk, and a multi-agency reservoir plan has been developed.

Reservoirs and dams present a low-frequency but potentially high-impact risk. Failure, overtopping or structural issues could result in rapid flooding, risk to life, damage to homes and businesses, disruption to transport and utilities, and the need for evacuation, water rescue and multi-agency coordination. These assets also require consideration in severe weather planning, business continuity and community warning arrangements.

Wind turbines and renewable energy infrastructure: Lancashire currently has 16 operational onshore wind farms hosting a total of 80 wind turbines. Wind turbines present a range of risks. Their remote locations can increase travel time for emergency services, which may increase the likelihood of fire spread before crews arrive. Their height, location and construction can also make them more prone to lightning strikes. As turbine-supporting tower structures may be more than 100 metres high, rescue operations may be extremely difficult if people become trapped.

From a fire and rescue service perspective, wind turbines combine several operational challenges: remote access, height, electrical systems, severe weather exposure, limited firefighting access and potential rescues from height. Fires may be difficult to extinguish and can spread to surrounding grassland or moorland, particularly during dry weather. Incidents may require specialist rescue capability, site-specific information, liaison with operators and consideration of firefighter safety due to falling debris, electrical hazards and restricted access.

Taken together, Lancashire’s infrastructure supports economic activity, transport, energy, water management and tourism, but it also creates a broad and interconnected risk environment. Incidents affecting one part of the infrastructure network can quickly create wider consequences, such as transport disruption, delayed emergency response, evacuation challenges, environmental impact, business interruption and increased demand on emergency services. LFRS therefore needs to maintain strong local risk intelligence, site-specific planning, multi-agency arrangements and specialist operational capability to manage these risks effectively.

Built Environment

The built environment across Lancashire continues to evolve in response to changing construction methods, modern building materials, sustainability objectives and legislative reform.

Modern methods of construction (MMC), including modular construction, timber-frame systems and off-site manufacturing techniques, are becoming increasingly common. Whilst these approaches can deliver efficiency and environmental benefits, they can also introduce varying fire performance characteristics during construction, occupation and refurbishment phases.

At the same time, the increased use of innovative construction materials, renewable energy technologies and energy-efficient design features is creating a more complex risk landscape. Fire safety professionals and operational crews must increasingly understand a wider range of building systems, construction techniques and fire behaviours than has traditionally been required.

Environment

Climate change: wildfires

Climate change is increasing the likelihood, frequency, duration and severity of extreme weather events, creating new and escalating operational risks for LFRS. Wildfire risk is becoming more complex, with changes not only in when wildfire incidents occur, but also in the types of vegetation and ground fuels involved.

Historically, wildfire activity has been concentrated in late spring, when surface fuels such as Molinia grasses and heather are dry enough to burn. These incidents can often be managed using conventional wildfire tactics and equipment. However, warmer and drier summer conditions are extending the wildfire season and increasing the risk of deeper-burning fires involving sub-surface fuels. These incidents are harder to detect, more difficult to extinguish fully and more likely to reignite.

This creates a direct impact on LFRS operations. More severe wildfires can require prolonged attendance, specialist wildfire capability, additional water supplies, off-road access, drone or thermal imaging support, welfare arrangements for crews and wider multi-agency coordination. They can also increase firefighter exposure to heat, smoke, difficult terrain and fatigue. Larger or longer-duration incidents may affect appliance availability across Lancashire and require support from neighbouring fire and rescue services or partner organisations.

LFRS continues to invest in the technological development of its wildfire response capability and works closely with public, private and voluntary sector partners on wildfire prevention, land management, planning and response.

The Service utilises Ordnance Survey’s datasets for the Rural Urban Interface (RUI) to view areas of risk in the event of wildfire, informing us of any areas of concern which we might not have already identified.

Climate change: flooding

Flooding linked to extreme rainfall is also becoming a more significant risk in Lancashire and across the UK. Heavy rainfall can overwhelm drainage systems, causing surface water flooding where water cannot drain away quickly enough. Flash flooding can develop rapidly, often with limited warning, making it difficult to predict and challenging for communities and responders.

When it rains heavily and for a long period of time, the drains become overwhelmed by the amount of water – they overflow and the water on the surface has nowhere to go.  Large puddles can become more of a flood, stretching across whole streets, pavements and sometimes further beyond that – this is known as surface water flooding.

Flash floods can occur anywhere and without warning during and after heavy rainfall, making them much more difficult to predict.  It's inconvenient and likely to cause disruption on the roads, but when it's more serious it can also cause damage to homes and businesses.

Climate change has a direct impact on community risk, operational demand and firefighter safety. More frequent and severe wildfires, flooding and extreme weather events can place additional pressure on people, infrastructure, communities and emergency response resources. For Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service, understanding these risks supports prevention activity, operational preparedness, investment in specialist capabilities, training, business continuity planning and partnership working through the Lancashire Resilience Forum and other local arrangements.

Wider climate change impacts and concurrent weather events

Climate change should continue to be considered as a broad and increasing environmental risk, not limited to wildfire and flooding. More frequent or intense periods of heat, drought, storms, extreme cold, poor air quality and water scarcity may affect community safety, infrastructure, staff welfare, operational demand and the ability to sustain prolonged or concurrent incidents. LFRS will continue to review assumptions around water availability, welfare, mutual aid, prolonged incident management and business continuity through operational planning and Lancashire Resilience Forum arrangements.

Water infrastructure, scarcity and operational water supply

Water supply and water infrastructure is considered as an environmental resilience issue. Drought, water infrastructure failure, pressure on utilities or reduced water availability could affect communities, agriculture, industry and firefighting operations. LFRS should continue to consider operational water supply, hydrant availability, alternative water sources and partner arrangements within climate change, drought and business continuity planning.

Waste, recycling and illegal disposal risks

Waste, recycling, scrap sites and illegal waste disposal continue to present environmental and operational risks. Rising costs of legal disposal, industrial activity, fly-tipping and poorly managed waste sites can increase the likelihood of fires, hazardous smoke, environmental pollution, anti-social behaviour and prolonged incidents. LFRS will continue to work with the Environment Agency, local authorities and Lancashire Resilience Forum partners to identify high-risk sites, share intelligence and support prevention and response planning.

Hazardous building materials and ageing building stock

Hazardous building materials and ageing building stock will remain under review as environmental and operational risks. Reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete, asbestos, defective external wall systems, derelict buildings and construction materials can affect firefighter safety, evacuation, structural stability, fire spread and environmental contamination. LFRS will continue to use site-specific risk information, operational procedures, protection activity and intelligence from partners to identify and manage these risks.

Pandemic and emerging infectious disease as environmental/public health risk

Pandemics and emerging infectious diseases is included as a relevant environmental and public health risk. Such events could reduce workforce availability, disrupt supply chains, increase partner demand and require LFRS to support a prolonged multi-agency response. LFRS will continue to review pandemic assumptions in business continuity plans, maintain critical supply resilience, consider PPE and workforce availability, and work with Lancashire Resilience Forum and health partners on escalation arrangements.

Environmental impact of emergency incidents

The environmental impact of emergency incidents should be recognised within operational planning. Fires, hazardous materials incidents, waste site fires, transport incidents and flooding can cause pollution, fire water run-off, smoke, contamination and damage to land, waterways and habitats. LFRS will continue to work with environmental partners to reduce harm, support incident mitigation and capture learning from incidents with significant environmental consequences

Legislative

Building Safety Reform

Since the Grenfell Tower fire, there has been significant change in the building safety landscape and the introduction of the Building Safety Regulator. Enhanced regulatory oversight, the introduction of new duties for responsible persons and implementation of building safety legislation continue to reshape protection activity and complexity of work facing protection departments.

Whilst high-rise residential buildings remain a significant area of focus, greater attention is also being directed towards mid-rise residential buildings, complex commercial premises, and other higher-risk buildings. This has increased expectations on fire and rescue services to provide effective regulation, assurance and professional advice whilst supporting economic growth and development.

The Building Safety Act 2022

The Building Safety Act 2022 introduced significant changes to the way higher-risk buildings are designed, constructed, managed and regulated. It places greater emphasis on accountability, resident safety, building information, duty holder responsibilities and the management of risk throughout the life of a building.

For LFRS, the Act continues to influence protection activity, operational risk information, engagement with responsible persons and partnership working with building safety regulators and local authorities. It is particularly relevant to high-rise residential buildings and other higher-risk premises where evacuation, fire spread, resident vulnerability, building design and firefighter safety may be affected.

LFRS will continue to ensure that protection, prevention and response activity reflects the requirements and expectations created by the Act. This includes maintaining appropriate risk-based inspection activity, reviewing operational risk information, supporting information-sharing arrangements and ensuring relevant staff understand the implications for higher-risk buildings.

The Fire Safety (England) Regulations 2022

The Fire Safety (England) Regulations 2022 introduced additional duties for responsible persons in multi-occupied residential buildings. These include requirements relating to fire safety instructions, fire door information and, for taller buildings, building plans, external wall information, firefighting equipment, lifts, secure information boxes and wayfinding signage.

These requirements are important to LFRS because they support better information for residents, improve firefighter situational awareness and strengthen preparedness for incidents in higher-risk residential buildings. Where information is incomplete, inaccurate or not maintained, this may affect operational decision-making and resident safety.

LFRS will continue to support compliance through protection activity, engagement with responsible persons and risk-based inspection arrangements. The Service will also ensure that relevant operational information is accessible, current and reflected in training, premises risk information and response planning.

The Fire Safety Act 2021

The Fire Safety Act 2021 clarified that the Fire Safety Order applies to the structure, external walls and flat entrance doors of multi-occupied residential buildings. This widened and clarified the areas that responsible persons must consider when assessing and managing fire risk.

For LFRS, this remains relevant to fire safety audit methodology, engagement with responsible persons, inspection programmes and operational preparedness. It is particularly important where external wall systems, balconies, compartmentation or flat entrance doors may affect fire spread, evacuation or firefighter safety.

LFRS will continue to reflect the Act within its risk-based inspection programme and fire safety audit approach. Relevant staff will remain aware of the requirements so they can provide consistent advice, assess compliance and identify buildings where fire safety risks require further action.

Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025 / Martyn’s Law

The Act seeks to improve safety and security at publicly accessible premises and events. LFRS may need to identify any in-scope premises or events, clarify responsible persons and duty holders, review evacuation, invacuation, lockdown and communication procedures, assess terrorism-related vulnerabilities and prepare for regulatory expectations. It may also increase demand for LFRS input into event safety and partnership planning arrangements.

Safeguarding legal and governance responsibilities

The Service must take reasonable steps to protect people who come into contact with its work, including members of the community, staff and partner organisations. This includes risks relating to abuse, harassment, exploitation, bullying, organisational culture and misuse of positions of trust. Policies, training, safer recruitment, DBS checks, reporting routes and assurance processes will remain under review.

Organisational

Financial sustainability and medium-term funding pressure

By law, fire and rescue services must set a balanced budget. The only aspect of its funding that the Service can directly control is the level of council tax that it sets, sometimes also referred to as the precept. LFRS should continue to recognise the organisational risk that medium-term funding may be insufficient to deliver all Community Risk Management Plan priorities. Financial pressures, inflation, pay awards, capital investment needs and reliance on local funding decisions may affect the Service’s ability to maintain resilience, invest in improvement and deliver its strategic objectives.

Ageing estate and inclusive, sustainable facilities

The condition, suitability and sustainability of the LFRS estate should be recognised as an organisational risk. Ageing buildings, backlog maintenance, accessibility limitations, energy efficiency issues and the need for inclusive facilities may affect staff wellbeing, operational effectiveness, resilience and net-zero delivery. LFRS will maintain an estate condition and accessibility baseline, prioritise critical investment and align estate planning with operational need, workforce requirements and sustainability goals.

Construction and capital programme cost pressures

Construction cost inflation is included as a specific economic factor. Rising costs for materials, labour, plant and professional services may affect the affordability and timing of LFRS capital projects, estate improvements and maintenance. This requires continued monitoring through the Medium-Term Financial Strategy, capital programme planning and procurement activity.

Supply chain, procurement and tariff pressures

Global supply-chain uncertainty remains a relevant economic risk. Tariffs, international conflict, disruption to trade routes, supplier failure and market volatility may increase costs or lead times for specialist vehicles, fleet parts, PPE, operational equipment, ICT, construction materials and other critical goods and services. This should continue to be monitored through procurement, fleet, finance and business continuity arrangements.

Employment Rights Act 2025

The Employment Rights Act 2025 introduced additions and amendments to existing legislation, including the Employment Rights Act 1996.  The employment changes included in the Act will take place in 2026 and 2027. Rules relating to ‘minimum service levels’ for strikes have been removed. Other rules relating to taking part in industrial action, unfair dismissal, have already been implemented as has additional legislation relating to parental leave, sick pay, protections relating to redundancy, whistleblowing, trade union recognition, and equality action plans. Additional rules relating to industrial action, trade union rules, unfair dismissal, dismissal and rehire, flexible working, zero-hours and low-hours contracts, bereavement leave, pregnancy and maternity rights and non-disclosure agreements are planned for 2027.

Staff availability, recruitment, retention, loss of key staff

Workforce availability, recruitment, retention, skills gaps and succession planning remain key organisational risks. Loss of experienced staff, increased competition for specialist skills, absence, retirement profiles and changing labour market expectations could affect service delivery, operational resilience and organisational capacity. LFRS will continue to monitor workforce data, support succession planning and align recruitment, development and wellbeing activity to future service needs.

Ageing workforce, health and wellbeing

An ageing workforce brings valuable experience and knowledge, but also creates challenges linked to physical role requirements, health, welfare, retirement planning, skills transfer and adapting to change. LFRS will continue to support staff through occupational health, wellbeing provision, reasonable adjustments, flexible retirement options, absence monitoring and career development pathways.

Workplace culture, conduct and public trust

Organisational culture remains central to public confidence, staff engagement and service effectiveness. Misconduct, poor behaviours, bullying, harassment, discrimination or behaviours inconsistent with Service values could damage trust, morale and reputation. LFRS will continue to strengthen leadership, values-based behaviours, reporting routes, code of conduct awareness, staff engagement and assurance arrangements.

Workforce pay, recruitment and retention pressures

Pay awards, pensions, recruitment competition and retention challenges increase financial pressure on LFRS and affect workforce planning, resilience and service delivery. These pressures should be considered alongside budget planning, establishment monitoring, absence trends and succession planning.

Specialist capabilities and national resilience skills

Maintaining specialist skills and capabilities remains important as fire and rescue services are increasingly required to support complex incidents beyond traditional firefighting. This includes specialist advice and response capability such as National Inter-agency Liaison Officers, tactical advisers, hazardous materials, rope rescue, water rescue and other national resilience functions. LFRS will continue to maintain, train and succession plan specialist cadres to ensure capability is resilient and available when required.

Changing workforce expectations and employee mental health

Workforce expectations around flexibility, inclusion, transparency, development, wellbeing and work-life balance continue to change. If these expectations are not understood and managed, there may be increased risk of absence, turnover, disengagement and skills loss. LFRS will continue to use workforce data, staff feedback and wellbeing indicators to inform action on flexible working, leadership capability, trauma-informed support, career development and inclusion.

Strategic partnerships and collaboration

Partnership working remains important to managing risk, improving prevention activity, sharing data and supporting effective multi-agency response. Demand pressures on health, social care, policing, ambulance services and local authorities may affect LFRS activity and collaboration priorities. LFRS will continue to work through local, regional and national partnerships, including the Lancashire Resilience Forum, neighbouring fire and rescue services, North West Fire Control, other emergency services and wider public-sector partners.

Future mobilisation and shared service arrangements

The future of regional or shared service arrangements, including control room or mobilisation arrangements, may affect governance, resilience, service continuity and how statutory functions are delivered. LFRS will continue to monitor developments, assess implications for service delivery and ensure that business continuity, governance and stakeholder arrangements remain clear.

Serious Violence Duty

The Serious Violence Duty requires specified authorities, including fire and rescue authorities, to work together to prevent and reduce serious violence through shared data, local needs assessment and coordinated action. For LFRS, this includes contributing intelligence, prevention and safeguarding activity, staff awareness and partnership governance. Delivery may increase demands on analytical and prevention resources but creates opportunities for earlier intervention through LFRS’s trusted community role.

Public inquiries, audit and inspection outcomes

Findings from public inquiries, HMICFRS inspections, internal audits and external assurance reviews can significantly influence organisational priorities, governance, reputation and improvement activity. LFRS will continue to monitor recommendations, maintain clear action tracking, report progress through governance routes and ensure learning is embedded across prevention, protection, response and corporate services.

Worker Protection duty and harassment prevention

The Worker Protection (Amendment of Equality Act) Act 2023 introduced a positive duty on employers to take reasonable steps to prevent sexual harassment of employees in the course of their employment. LFRS will ensure this is reflected in policies, risk assessments, management training, reporting routes, staff briefings, monitoring and assurance activity. Effective compliance supports employee wellbeing, organisational culture, legal compliance and public confidence.

Local government reform and devolution

Local government reform and devolution remains under review. The government has outlined a major programme of devolution intended to give local areas more power, money and accountability so they can drive economic growth and improve public services. The proposals include the intention to align fire and rescue services, police and integrated care boards with strategic authority boundaries.

Local government reorganisation (LGR) is intended to support devolution through single tier unitary authorities. Plans for LGR in Lancashire, which propose reorganising the existing 15 unitary, district and county councils into a smaller number of unitary authorities, have been paused for review.

Any future changes to local or regional governance could affect accountability, funding decisions, leadership arrangements, operational independence, collaboration priorities and Community Risk Management Plan delivery. LFRS should continue to engage with local authorities, monitor national and local developments, and assess any implications for governance, resources, partnerships and strategic planning.

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence may provide opportunities for LFRS to enhance situational awareness, analyse information more quickly and support the modelling of potential strategies and tactics at major or complex incidents. AI systems could help identify patterns, forecast impacts, improve decision-making and support operational planning. However, increased use of AI will require appropriate governance, assurance, data quality, cyber security and ethical oversight to ensure outputs are accurate, transparent and used appropriately. LFRS should continue to monitor developments in AI, explore safe and proportionate opportunities for operational and organisational use, and ensure any adoption supports effective decision-making, public trust and service resilience.

Robotics / Autonomous Vehicles / Augmented reality / Drones

Robotics, autonomous vehicles, drones and immersive technologies may create both opportunities and risks for LFRS. Autonomous vehicles have the potential to improve road safety by reducing human error, but may also introduce risks linked to cyberattack, hacking, hostile third-party control or system failures where fail-safe measures are inadequate. Robotic firefighting devices and drones can support remote assessment, improve situational awareness and reduce the need to deploy firefighters into hazardous environments. Augmented reality and virtual reality also offer opportunities for safer, more immersive training and could support operational awareness at incidents. LFRS will continue to monitor these technologies, ensure appropriate governance, training and cyber security arrangements are in place, and consider how they can be used safely to improve firefighter safety, incident command and operational effectiveness.

Drones and other emerging operational technologies support incident intelligence, situational awareness, search activity, wildfire monitoring, hazardous materials incidents and post-incident review. However, they also create governance, safety, privacy, cyber, training and airspace management considerations. LFRS will continue to ensure that any use of drones or related technologies is supported by appropriate policies, training, data protection controls, operational assurance and legal compliance.

RIPA, drones, body-worn video and surveillance governance

Use of drones, body-worn video and other recording technologies should be supported by clear legal and information governance arrangements. LFRS will ensure that any use of such technologies is compliant with surveillance law, data protection requirements, privacy expectations and operational policy. This will include lawful basis, data protection impact assessments, retention periods, access controls, disclosure arrangements, signage, oversight and clear criteria for when authorisation may be required.

Data governance, information sharing and UK GDPR changes

The Data (Use and Access) Act 2025 updates aspects of UK GDPR and data protection requirements, with greater emphasis on accountability, transparency, data-subject rights, complaints handling, automated decision-making and information sharing. LFRS will review privacy notices, data-sharing arrangements, information governance processes, staff training and automated decision-making controls to ensure continued compliance and public trust.

Net zero transition and environmental sustainability obligations

Decarbonising the estate, fleet, travel, procurement and operational activity will require sustained investment, infrastructure change and new ways of working. While this creates opportunities to reduce emissions, energy use and long-term costs, it may also create financial, operational and capacity pressures. LFRS should maintain a costed sustainability pathway, with clear baselines and milestones for estate, fleet, energy, water, waste and procurement.

Fire contaminants and occupational exposure requirements

Emerging evidence and potential regulation relating to firefighter exposure to contaminants is included as a legal and health and safety risk. LFRS need to consider requirements around exposure reduction, clean and dirty zoning, PPE transport and laundering, incident-ground decontamination, facilities, exposure records, health surveillance, training and assurance. Failure to respond to evolving expectations could create health, legal, financial and reputational impacts.

Procurement Act 2023 compliance

The Procurement Act 2023 introduced a more transparent and flexible public procurement regime. LFRS must ensure that procurement procedures, templates, approvals, notices, supplier exclusion and debarment checks, conflicts of interest, contract performance monitoring, key performance indicators and payment reporting are embedded consistently. Failure to comply could result in legal challenge, procurement delay, poor value, reputational damage or supply-chain disruption.

Public Office (Accountability) Bill / Hillsborough Law

The Public Office (Accountability) Bill, commonly referred to as the Hillsborough Law, should be monitored as a proposed legal duty. The bill was approved by the House of Commons in July 2026 after resolving debates over intelligence service exemptions, and it now moves to the House of Lords for scrutiny. If enacted, it may place stronger expectations on public authorities and public servants around candour, honesty, record keeping, inquiry participation and accountability following major incidents. LFRS should continue to monitor the passage of the Bill and consider any implications for codes of ethics, records management, disclosure, inquest preparation and public inquiry arrangements.

 

Appendix B - Glossary of Abbreviations and Terms

 

Acronym	Description
ADF	Accidental Dwelling Fire – a fire in a home that was not started deliberately.
AFV	Alternatively Fuelled Vehicle – a vehicle powered by fuels or energy sources other than petrol or diesel, such as electricity, hydrogen or biofuels.
AI	Artificial Intelligence – technology that can perform tasks usually requiring human judgement, such as analysing information, identifying patterns or supporting decision-making.
ASB	Anti-social behaviour – behaviour that causes, or is likely to cause, harassment, alarm, distress or nuisance to others.
BESS	Battery Energy Storage System – a system that stores electrical energy, usually using batteries, so it can be used later.
BME	Black or Minority Ethnic groups.
BMS	Battery Management System – technology that monitors and controls battery performance, charging and temperature to help prevent faults.
Built environment	Buildings, places and infrastructure created or adapted by people, including homes, workplaces, roads, utilities and public spaces.
CBRNE	Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear – a term used to describe hazardous materials or incidents involving these types of threat.
CFA	Combined Fire Authority – the local authority body responsible for governing Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service.
CFRMIS	Community Fire Risk Management Information System.
CNI	Critical National Infrastructure.
COMAH	Control of Major Accident Hazards – regulations applying to sites where dangerous substances are stored or used above certain thresholds.
Community Risk Register	A local multi-agency register that identifies the main risks that could affect communities, assesses their likelihood and impact, and supports emergency planning and preparedness.
Consequence score	A score used to assess the potential impact of an incident, such as harm to people, damage to property, disruption to services or wider effects on communities.
CRMP	Community Risk Management Plan – the plan that sets out how a fire and rescue service identifies, assesses and manages risk in its area.
CRR	Community Risk Register.
Cyber resilience	The ability of an organisation to prepare for, respond to and recover from cyber incidents while continuing to deliver essential services.
Deprivation	A measure of disadvantage that may include income, employment, health, education, housing, crime and access to services. Areas with higher deprivation may experience increased vulnerability to some risks.
Digital resilience failure	Significant disruption caused by the failure of digital systems, data infrastructure or technology-dependent services.
District intelligence profile	A local evidence base that brings together data and intelligence about risk within a district, helping to target prevention, protection and response activity.
EV	Electric Vehicle – a vehicle powered wholly or partly by electricity.
Fluvial flooding	Flooding from rivers or watercourses when water levels rise and overflow onto surrounding land.
FRS	Fire and Rescue Service.
Fuel poverty	A household is in fuel poverty when it cannot afford to heat the home adequately because of low income, high energy costs or poor energy efficiency.
GIS	Geographic Information System.
Hazmat	Hazardous materials – substances that may pose a risk to people, property or the environment, such as chemicals, gases or biological materials.
HMO	House in Multiple Occupation – a property where people from more than one household live and share facilities such as a kitchen or bathroom.
IMD	Index of Multiple Deprivation – the official measure of relative deprivation for small areas in England.
IRS	Incident Recording System.
LFRS	Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service.
LGR	Local Government Reorganisation – changes to the structure, responsibilities or boundaries of local government.
Likelihood score	A score used to estimate how likely an incident or risk is to occur, often based on incident frequency, trends and professional judgement.
LILEE	Low Income Low Energy Efficiency – the measure used in England to identify households in fuel poverty.
LRF	Lancashire Resilience Forum – a multi-agency partnership that plans and prepares for emergencies in Lancashire.
LSOA	Lower-layer Super Output Area – a small geographic area used for statistical reporting and comparison.
Martyn’s Law	The Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025, which introduces requirements for certain premises and events to consider protection from terrorist attacks.
Misinformation	False or misleading information that may be shared intentionally or unintentionally and can affect public understanding or behaviour.
MOU	Memorandum of Understanding.
MTA	Marauding Terrorist Attack.
NILO	National Inter-agency Liaison Officer – a trained officer who supports communication and coordination between emergency services and partner agencies during incidents.
NOG	National Operational Guidance.
NRR	National Risk Register – the UK Government’s public assessment of the most serious risks facing the country.
NSRA	National Security Risk Assessment – the government’s classified assessment that informs the National Risk Register.
NWAS	North West Ambulance Service.
PESTELO	A framework for analysing Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological and infrastructure, Environmental, Legislative and Organisational factors.
PNT	Positioning, Navigation and Timing – services, often provided through satellite systems, that support location, navigation and accurate timing.
Primary fire	A reportable fire that generally involves property, vehicles, outdoor structures, casualties, rescues or attendance by five or more fire appliances.
RAAC	Reinforced Autoclaved Aerated Concrete – a lightweight concrete material used in some buildings, now associated with structural safety concerns where deterioration is present.
RIPA	Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act 2000 – legislation governing surveillance and the use of investigatory powers by public bodies.
RTC	Road Traffic Collision.
SAoR	Strategic Assessment of Risk – LFRS’s evidence-based assessment of risks affecting Lancashire and the Service.
STEAM	Scarborough Tourism Economic Activity Monitor.